562
FXUS61 KILN 081839
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
139 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL COME IN BEHIND THE
LOW ALLOWING LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. A
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING THE FIRST
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF THE SEASON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SHORT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL
BRING RAIN AND SHOWERS TO AT LEAST LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75
LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK NORTHWEST OF
I-71 DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A VERY MODEST DIURNAL RISE IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT, THERE WILL BE SOME VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (1/4 INCH OR
LESS). TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA INTO WEST VIRGINIA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED AXIS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THIS
TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. OCCURRING DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD AND STILL
RELATIVELY WARM PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES, EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS, AND ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD MELT ONCE
SNOW TAPERS OFF. BUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED ON
GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL NOT BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT ENDS UP AS ACCUMULATION DEPTH BECAUSE OF
MELTING WITH THIS FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON. PROBABILITIES OF MINOR
IMPACTS RANGE FROM 10 TO 30 PERCENT.
THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST MONDAY EVENING.
THIS MAY POSE A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, THERE MAY STILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS,
PARTICULARLY FROM WEST CENTRAL OHIO INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE BACKED TO WEST NORTHWEST, SO THE TRAJECTORY OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL FAVOR ACTIVITY IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CUT OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW
BACKS FURTHER AND RIDGING STARTS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN A
LONG WAVE RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AT THE
SURFACE, THE TAIL END OF A FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA MAY BRUSH BY THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THIS AS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY
NORTH. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ON SATURDAY, BUT AT THIS POINT
LOOKS DRY AS WELL.
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR ON
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND
BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR WITH JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARDS 00Z.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS WITH SOME MINOR
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR BELOW 2KFT
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF PRECIPITATION STARTING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND GUST INTO THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR, ESPECIALLY AT KDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH MVFR TO
IFR VISIBILITIES ON MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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