459
FXUS61 KILN 090708
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
208 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL COME IN BEHIND
THE LOW ALLOWING LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
A DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING THE
FIRST LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF THE SEASON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK.
THIS WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA BY SUNRISE. AS THE LOW QUICKLY
TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA BY AFTN THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A LIMITED DIURNAL RISE TO TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON - WITH A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN INTO THE BASE
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN TN VALLEY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED AXIS OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THIS TROUGH - WHICH PIVOTS SOUTH THRU THE AREA MONDAY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND WITH RELATIVELY WARM PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES,
EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED ON GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
THIS BEING THE FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON AND WSSI INDICATING 40-60
PROBABILITIES OF MINOR IMPACTS, WILL MENTION IN HWO PRODUCT. LOWS
TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY LATE. BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE IN BANDS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN (NORTH OF I-70)
EARLY BEFORE ENDING AS FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE
LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD BUT MAY ALLOW FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE. BY WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE A
DRY ONE, BUT WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DUE TO THE INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT INTO
THE 50S AND PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA BY SUNRISE. AS THE LOW QUICKLY
TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA BY AFTN THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MVFR
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EARLY. THERE IS SOME WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER, PARTICULARLY
AT KCVG AND KLUK, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IS VERY LOW, SO
HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAFS.
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR WITH SCATTED RAIN SHOWERS
THIS AFTN. THESE RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE OF PCPN LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED - SO HAVE KEPT MENTION TO
PROB30.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. AFTERNOON WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AREA EXPECTED AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH MVFR TO
IFR VISIBILITIES ON MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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