551
FXUS61 KILN 091837
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING THE FIRST LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF THE SEASON. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAKE AN INITIAL DROP IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THEN STEADY OUT FOR THE REST OF THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. AN INITIAL SURGE OF GUSTY WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LESSENS
WITHIN A FEW HOURS.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME VERY
LIGHT DISORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING.
STRONG MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BIFURCATE
WITH ONE CENTER TRANSLATING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE OTHER
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MAKING INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY
THE END OF THE NIGHT. AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITHIN
THE MODEL SUITE, BUT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF I-70 BY DAYBREAK.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THE SURFACE FEATURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. SOMEWHAT BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING WILL AFFECT THE
WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. SO WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD GET 1-2 INCHES WITH PARTS OF
CENTRAL OHIO ONLY AROUND 1/2 INCH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SOUTHERN MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY,
REACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE DAY. NORTHERN LOW WILL
TRANSLATE TO NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE EAST-WEST SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH, CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. A FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL FORCING AS
WELL AS DIURNAL PROCESSES. ACCUMULATIONS MAY END UP AT 1-2 INCHES FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT MUCH WILL EVER BE ON
THE GROUND AS MELTING WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ONCE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER
OFF. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BREAK LATER IN THE DAY, SO ANY INSOLATION
WILL ADD TO THE MELTING PROCESS. MAIN HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS, MAINLY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.
SECONDARY MINOR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, PRIMARILY AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OHIO. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE GREATER IN THE FORMER,
ALTHOUGH PROBABLY LESS THAN 1 INCH. THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AS RIDGING WORKS IN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GOOD CONSENSUS WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE WITH THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CONTINENT WILL PERSIST WITH A MINOR SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE
PASSES, THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE WITH RIDGING
WORKING ITS WAY EAST. BUT THEN OVER THE WEEKEND THERE IS A LARGE
DISPERSION OF SOLUTIONS WITH SOME MEMBERS HAVING AN OPEN TROUGH
MOVING EAST WHILE OTHERS CLOSE OFF A LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
RESULTS IN A MUCH SLOWER PROGRESSION.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, THIS WILL BE A DRY PATTERN WITH ANY
EFFECTS OF THE MID WEEK SHORT WAVE STILL FORECAST TO STAY NORTH OF
THE REGION. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES OVER THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AS
A WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH, BUT THE TIMING OF THAT IS UNCERTAIN. THEN
IF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION OCCURS, THERE WILL BE SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY. NBM
AVERAGES THAT OUT AS CHANCE POPS WHICH REASONABLY ADDRESSES THE
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK, ONLY STALLED BRIEFLY
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM
NEARLY 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL. SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD MAY BRING TEMPORARY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW, BUT AMOUNTS DURING
THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE LIGHT AND MAINLY CAUSE MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS
GUSTY.
AFTER 06Z, A GENERALLY EAST-WEST AXIS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND BECOME ENHANCED WITH TIME AS THIS DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR EVEN LIFR
VISIBILITY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL END LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS AT KCVG/KLUK.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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