895
FXUS61 KILN 092355
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING THE FIRST LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF THE SEASON. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THE CENTER OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING DOWN THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW DROPPING ALONG THE OH/IN
BORDER, THROUGH THE TRI-STATE, ADVECTING AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
RESULTS IN A QUASI-ZONAL BAND OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THAT SAG SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO/ INDIANA AND INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING HOURS.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT, DUE TO THIS AREA OF SNOWFALL MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE DIURNAL HEATING IS AT A
MINIMUM, THAT LIGHT ROADWAY ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR, PARTICULARLY IN
WEST CENTRAL OHIO. SNOW WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN/OHIO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE, WHICH MAY MITIGATE THE ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL, BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES, OPTED
TO EXPAND THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT SOUTH AND A TAD EAST THROUGH
THE CWA FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SINCE THE STRONGEST FORCING
APPEARS CLOSER TO THE OH/IN BORDER, DID NOT INCLUDE CENTRAL OH IN THE
SPS AT THIS TIME, THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED ONCE EVENING
GUIDANCE COMES IN.
MEANWHILE, WANT TO MAKE SURE TO NOTE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY
FALL THIS EVENING, DROPPING FROM THE MID 40S EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE MID 20S BY EARLY MORNING BUS-STOP TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION--> COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES
MAKE AN INITIAL DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THEN STEADY OUT FOR
THE REST OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD. AN INITIAL SURGE OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LESSENS WITHIN A FEW HOURS.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME VERY
LIGHT DISORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING.
STRONG MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BIFURCATE
WITH ONE CENTER TRANSLATING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE OTHER
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MAKING INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY
THE END OF THE NIGHT. AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITHIN
THE MODEL SUITE, BUT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF I-70 BY DAYBREAK.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THE SURFACE FEATURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. SOMEWHAT BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING WILL AFFECT THE
WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. SO WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD GET 1-2 INCHES WITH PARTS OF
CENTRAL OHIO ONLY AROUND 1/2 INCH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
SOUTHERN MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY,
REACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE DAY. NORTHERN LOW WILL
TRANSLATE TO NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE EAST-WEST SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH, CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. A FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL FORCING AS
WELL AS DIURNAL PROCESSES. ACCUMULATIONS MAY END UP AT 1-2 INCHES FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT MUCH WILL EVER BE ON
THE GROUND AS MELTING WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ONCE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER
OFF. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BREAK LATER IN THE DAY, SO ANY INSOLATION
WILL ADD TO THE MELTING PROCESS. MAIN HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS, MAINLY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.
SECONDARY MINOR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, PRIMARILY AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OHIO. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE GREATER IN THE FORMER,
ALTHOUGH PROBABLY LESS THAN 1 INCH. THIS BAND WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AS RIDGING WORKS IN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GOOD CONSENSUS WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE WITH THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CONTINENT WILL PERSIST WITH A MINOR SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE
PASSES, THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE WITH RIDGING
WORKING ITS WAY EAST. BUT THEN OVER THE WEEKEND THERE IS A LARGE
DISPERSION OF SOLUTIONS WITH SOME MEMBERS HAVING AN OPEN TROUGH
MOVING EAST WHILE OTHERS CLOSE OFF A LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
RESULTS IN A MUCH SLOWER PROGRESSION.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, THIS WILL BE A DRY PATTERN WITH ANY
EFFECTS OF THE MID WEEK SHORT WAVE STILL FORECAST TO STAY NORTH OF
THE REGION. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES OVER THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AS
A WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH, BUT THE TIMING OF THAT IS UNCERTAIN. THEN
IF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION OCCURS, THERE WILL BE SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY. NBM
AVERAGES THAT OUT AS CHANCE POPS WHICH REASONABLY ADDRESSES THE
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK, ONLY STALLED BRIEFLY
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM
NEARLY 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. BETWEEN THIS WRITING AND MIDNIGHT,
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW SHOULD BE MVFR.
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN A STRONGER BAND OF SNOW SAGGING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SOMETIME BETWEEN 4AM AND 10AM, DEPENDING ON LOCATION.
SNOW RATES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT HEAVIER, SO VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR
(POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR) AS THIS BAND MOVES SOUTH.
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND VSBYS AND CIGS
WILL IMPROVE. SOME SUGGESTION THAT WE MAY ACTUALLY SCATTER OUT ACROSS
THE REGION, THOUGH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER, SO WE'LL SEE
IF WE ACTUALLY SCATTER OR WHETHER WE'RE LEFT WITH A BKN DECK.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, AROUND 10 KNOTS,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM... /CA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page