147
FXUS61 KILN 101714
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1214 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. THE BAND HAS BEEN WEAKENING SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO
AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS IT WORKS SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. BETWEEN THIS AND THE INCREASE IN SOLAR
INSOLATION, ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED OUTSIDE OF
THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND. NONETHELESS, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES STILL
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY HEADING INTO TONIGHT, WE WILL BEGIN TO
SEE A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
AND SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT, THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
ADDITIONAL SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP
QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS
FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SNOW VS RAIN. AS OF NOW, IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY PCPN ACROSS OUR NORTH WILL BE MAINLY SNOW, WHILE
ACROSS OUR SOUTH, MAINLY RAIN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 60S. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC
LIFT, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. THUS, EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO IMPROVE INTO VFR THROUGH MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.
A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ066-
073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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