618
FXUS61 KILN 110011
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
711 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
EVENING UPDATE-->
TEMPS: RESIDUAL SNOWPACK AND PM CLEARING SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP WELL BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS SUCH, HAVE TRENDED GRIDS COLDER TONIGHT,
DROPPING MOST AREAS DOWN TO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. KEEP IN
MIND THAT ELEVATED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS TO
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
LAKE EFFECT: NORTHWESTERLY FLOW NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
DOWN SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN OHIO. OBSERVATION SITES IN NORTHEASTERN
INDIANA INDICATE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS MAKING IT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.
THIS STREAM WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST, THOUGH THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT DOWN INTO OUR
CWA. HOWEVER, GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH SLRS, HAVE BUMPED UP
SNOW TOTALS A TAD FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF I-70, THOUGH STILL KEEPING
TOTALS AROUND 1/2 INCH OR LESS, WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST (MERCER, AUGLAIZE, DARKE (THESE
AREAS MIGHT GET CLOSER TO 1 INCH)). WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND ASSESS
OVERNIGHT VIA TRAFFIC CAMS AND OBS SITES- FOR NOW, HAVE COVERED WITH
THE HWO, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SPS BEING NEEDED IF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT LOOKS TO BE MORE ROBUST HERE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION--> AN ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO SAG
SLOWLY SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE BAND HAS BEEN WEAKENING SOMEWHAT OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS IT WORKS
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. BETWEEN THIS AND THE
INCREASE IN SOLAR INSOLATION, ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND. NONETHELESS, WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING, WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY HEADING INTO TONIGHT, WE WILL BEGIN TO
SEE A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
AND SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT, THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
ADDITIONAL SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP
QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS
FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SNOW VS RAIN. AS OF NOW, IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY PCPN ACROSS OUR NORTH WILL BE MAINLY SNOW, WHILE
ACROSS OUR SOUTH, MAINLY RAIN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 60S. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC
LIFT, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER, A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL
MOVE DOWN FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN SITES (KDAY, KCMH, KLCK, AND POSSIBLY KILN), SO HAVE ADDED A
BRIEF PERIOD OF PROB30 FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED BY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CLOUDS.
THIS BAND TAPERS OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AND WE'RE LEFT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 12 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 25 AT TIMES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RENEWED SNOW SHOWERS
DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/CA
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CA
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