109
FXUS61 KILN 112300
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
600 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION THIS EVENING IS PROVIDING
WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
RESULTING IN CHILLY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THE SNOW
IS NO LONGER FALLING AND TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING, SNOW MELT WILL BEGIN, BUT THE
CLOUD COVER MAY RESIST A COMPLETE MELTING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SAW 3 TO 5 INCHES. AS THE WEAK SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT, CAN'T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR PARTIALLY MELTED SNOWFLAKE (SNOW
GRAIN) IF PRECIPITATION REACHES THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
WINDS REMAIN NOTICEABLE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE DESCENDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE HOVER IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE
PREVENTED BY THE LINGERING WINDS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S TO START THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH PROVIDES A NOTICEABLE WESTERLY WIND.
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO MAY SEE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING, BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SOME UPPER-
LEVEL CIRRUS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM NORTHWEST, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR COMPLETE SUNNY SKIES.
A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE
AREA RETURNS TO THE MID 40S AND MID 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. WHILE
STILL BELOW NORMAL, THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. THE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30
MPH MAY BE THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR TO TEMPERATURES FEELING A BIT
WARMER.
THE WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY IS
HARDLY NOTICEABLE, BECAUSE THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT ARRIVES BEHIND THE
FRONT IS ALREADY MODIFIED BY WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A STEADY WARM-UP CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN MID
50S ON FRIDAY, AND SOME LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
LOCATIONS INCLUDING NORTHERN KENTUCKY. A WEAK SYSTEM RESULTS IN LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THE SIGNAL REMAINS FAIRLY MINOR AT THIS TIME. IT
MAY DISAPPEAR ENTIRELY AS THE ENSEMBLES GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFT OCCURRING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE.
THE WARM-UP PEAKS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY APPROACHING 70
DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SCATTERED
RAINFALL CHANCES CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE REGION DOESN'T COOL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS MUCH
OF THE COOLER AIR REMAINS TUCKED AWAY TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
BE EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS RATHER WEAK AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
WESTERN US SO THIS WILL INTRODUCE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES DEPENDING
ON THE MODEL.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL VFR
CEILINGS FOR THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE SITES. SCATTERED
VFR CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD AFTER 0600Z AT
MOST SITES. SOME BROKEN VFR CEILINGS COULD STICK AROUND LONGER AT
THE COLUMBUS SITES INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST FROM 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH 1200Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS OCCURS OVERNIGHT WHEN A
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...
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