061
FXUS61 KILN 131057
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
557 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
TODAY INTO FRIDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A
DEVELOPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO
THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE AGAIN TODAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH DECREASING PDEFS.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A RATHER ROBUST AREA OF OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL PULL A WARM FRONT
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, INTRODUCING
EVEN STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
SOME LIGHT POPS ARE INTRODUCED LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE AND THE INTRODUCTION OF A STRONG LLJ.
HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW, CONFIDENCE ON ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD REMAINS LOW. THE LLJ INTENSIFIES ON SATURDAY DAY, WITH
45 TO 50 KNOTS AT 850 MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS AFTER WE DECOUPLE, SO ANTICIPATE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR STRONGEST GUSTS LIGHTING
UP MORESO ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY REACH
THE UPPER 60S, AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR EAST, WE'LL STILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE DAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BLEND HANGS ONTO
STRATIFORM RAIN, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT, SO MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER AT SOME POINT
IN THE FUTURE AS THINGS RESOLVE BETTER.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES, WE DRY OUT YET AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
IN THE 50S. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO HINT AT THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION AROUND TUESDAY, AS A POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY, WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL
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