067
FXUS61 KILN 141324
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
824 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A COOLER, MORE
SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MORNING UPDATE...
UPDATED AREA POPS BASED ON CURRENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY SO SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE AREA, PRIMARILY
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE, IN THE DEVELOPING WAA, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO POSSIBLY
MID 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS, A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION UP INTO THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL THEN DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. DURING THE DAYTIME
PERIOD, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST SO THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, MOSTLY IN THE 65 TO
70 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE WELL TALKED ABOUT AREA OF OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CONTINUING ITS PROGRESS THROUGH CANADA, TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
ILN CWA NEAR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL INDICATING THAT SOME WEAK SURFACE
INSTABILITY (AND EVEN SOME ELEVATED) WILL BE PRESENT SATURDAY
EVENING, PRIMARILY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO/ NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
AS SUCH, HAVE INTRODUCED THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS FOR SATURDAY
EVENING. A 50+ KNOT LLJ WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SHEAR, SO CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IN THE AREAS MENTIONED, THOUGH OVERALL
INSTABILITY PROFILE IS LIMITED AND MESSY. NEVERTHELESS, BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER STILL HOLDS ON TO 30+ KNOT GUSTS WELL PAST SUNSET,
SO THE THINKING IS THAT EVEN WITHOUT STRONG "STORMS," SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH MAY HAVE ENOUGH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO BLOW THINGS
AROUND.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES, WE DRY OUT YET AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
IN THE 50S. AS WE GO TOWARD MID-WEEK, QUASI ZONAL FLOW SETS UP AND
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST OF
WHICH, WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO HAVE SHIFTED THIS WAVE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH SINCE PREVIOUS RUNS,
TAKING IT RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THIS HAS SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED
POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT
MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, THOUGH A BRIEF TRANSITION TO
SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY LATE.
AFTER THIS, LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES GET QUITE MUDDLED. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNAL FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN, WITH MULTIPLE WAVES AND
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW. HOWEVER, DETAILS ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE LIMITED, DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AND
VARIABILITY BETWEEN GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY, A WETTER PATTERN
DEFINITELY SEEMS TO BE ON THE HORIZON.
AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A QUICK SHOT
OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TO SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY DEVELOP
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, BUT CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL BE
PRIMARILY VFR BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARD MVFR TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN SOME MARGINAL LLWS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL
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