328
FXUS61 KILN 141749
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1249 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES SUPPLIES WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING ALOFT, WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THE ONLY IMPLICATIONS TO THE FORECAST. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE GOING TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CLOUDS BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATER IN THE DAY AS THE FORCING FROM
THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES. OVERNIGHT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED WELL ABOVE NORMAL (10 TO 15 DEGREES) WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 50S.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AGAIN OVERNIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH WINDS
ARE UNLIKELY TO BE CALM DURING THE MORNING, A QUICK RAMP UP IN WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE MID MORNING (~10 AM).
THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE MIXING OF
THE STRONGER WIND ALOFT TO THE SURFACE DESPITE THE LACK OF SUNSHINE.
THESE CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
POSSIBLE. MOST LOCATIONS SEE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE, BUT ACROSS WESTERN OHIO AND CENTRAL OHIO, THERE IS A HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH.
FOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST, THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO SUPPLY MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO THE REGION. CLOUD COVER, SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES ARE THE EXPECTATION
SATURDAY MORNING. IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH UPWARD
LIFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES, EVEN THOUGH THE AIR
WILL LIKELY FEEL DAMP.
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION
INCREASES DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT, COVERAGE OF RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OHIO ALONG WITH NORTHERN KENTUCKY. CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW ACROSS
EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO DUE TO THE LACK OF BETTER FORCING AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. NEARLY ALL OF THE
THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST ALONG WITH ANY CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT, ENDING
CHANCES FOR RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, THE AIR MASS ISN'T SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER MEANING SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST, BUT PRECIPITATION RETURNS ON TUESDAY.
A WEAK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A FAIRLY WARM SIGNAL SO IF ANY SNOW WERE TO
FALL, IT WOULD LIKELY BE INTO SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. THE EARLIER THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TUESDAY
MORNING, THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW, PRIMARILY ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR.
BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM, A LARGE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AMPLIFYING A
RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE DETAILS ON ANY PARTICULAR
THREAT ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR AT LEAST
A WARMER PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM PATTERN, THE REGION COULD SEE A
SEVERAL DAY STRETCH OF RAINFALL CHANCES. IF IT IS A MORE EXTREME
AMPLIFICATION, THE WARMTH MAY BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE TAF, AN
ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS LATER TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL SUPPLY A PERIOD OF LLWS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW USHERS IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE,
RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CIGS COULD GET BELOW
2000 FEET IN SOME AREAS, BUT THE DURATION AND COVERAGE IS LOWER IN
CONFIDENCE. SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SOME PERIOD OF
LIGHT MIST OR DRIZZLE, BUT CONFIDENCE WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
THE OTHER AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE THE QUICK INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SATURDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS MAY QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE
LOWER 20 KNOTS TO 30 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, CONTINUING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT THE FREQUENCY
OF THE 30+ KNOT WIND GUSTS SO LIMITED THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page