173
FXUS61 KILN 151114
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
614 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING AND A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TODAY. AS IT DOES, AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS,
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS,
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A DEVELOPING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. IN THE WAA PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITIES WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING SO A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS, THERE
MAY BE A VERY SMALL WINDOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS ALL COMING TOGETHER IS
SOMEWHAT LOW ATTM. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT WITH PCPN COMING TO AN END AND A DECREASING CLOUD TREND.
A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW/MID 50S IN THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT, KEEPING CONDITIONS CALM AND TRANQUIL.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT FALL TO THE 20S IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES. MONDAY REMAINS
QUIET AND DRY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
MEANWHILE, THERE IS DECENT CONSENSUS THAT, ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST WILL BE OPENING UP/WEAKENING AS IT TRAVELS
THROUGH THE BROADER FLOW TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR AREA, WITH THE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD
OVERSPREADING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHIFTING THIS FEATURE FARTHER NORTH WITH EACH RUN,
SO THERMAL PROFILES HAVE BEEN WARMING, INDICATING THAT PRIMARY P-
TYPE WILL BE (A COLD) RAIN. THOUGH, THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT THAT HAVE
KEPT GRIDS AS ALL RAIN.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A GRUNGY DAY, WITH CLOUD COVER, PERIODS OF RAIN,
AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. PWATS AREN'T PARTICULARLY ROBUST, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE SYSTEM DECAYING, BUT MOST AREAS WILL PICK UP 0.1 TO 0.2" OF
RAIN.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS TO REMAIN ACTIVE, THOUGH THE SIGNAL
IS QUITE MUDDLED. A DEEP, LONGWAVE, TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER, THAT'S ABOUT WHERE THE CONSENSUS
ENDS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TRYING TO RESOLVE
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES IN THE LARGER FLOW, PROGRESSION OF THE LARGER
TROUGH ITSELF, TIMING ETC... FOR NOW, HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SAY
THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE, WITH A WARMING TREND LIKELY,
GIVEN THE DIGGING TROUGH TO THE WEST, RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER OUR
AREA.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25
TO 30 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. AS IT APPROACHES, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A FEW HOUR PROB30. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS.
PCPN WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL ALSO SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS STILL POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL
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