709
FXUS61 KILN 151759
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1259 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING AND A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DESPITE THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PULLED WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. CLOUDS CONTINUE
DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE, HOWEVER, NO PRECIPITATION HAS FORMED. WINDS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH BEING OBSERVED. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AND
PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH MAY OCCUR.
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, MID-LEVEL LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S, OVERALL INSTABILITY IS
NEGLIGIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE MAY EVENTUALLY
FORM SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED, A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT DROPPING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST PROVIDES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO, BUT OVERALL,
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO FAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER,
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN CLOSER TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING
TO START THE DAY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS ON THE BACK EDGE OF AN EXITING H5 TROUGH ON
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
AIR INTACT. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD, AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING IN FROM THE PLAINS AND EJECT
THROUGH OUR FA ON TUESDAY. THIS FORCING MECHANISM WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN ON TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE. QPF AMOUNTS FROM THIS QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 0.1" TO 0.25".
ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, A BROAD H5 RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CURRENTLY, FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO
HAVE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES, BUT A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAYTIME. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON HIGH TEMPS, BUT STILL REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT HIGHS
WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL. ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY FEW ENSEMBLES WITH ANY SURFACE BASED CAPE, SO THUNDER
POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LIMITED FOR NOW.
OVERALL, A WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAVING THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IT TOOK A FEW HOURS FOR THE MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP, BUT AREA
OBSERVATIONS NOW SHOWING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SCATTERING AND GRADUALLY INCREASING CEILING HEIGHTS, ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND SHOWERS BEGIN TO FORM. GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE,
THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED WITH PROB30 GROUPS.
BEYOND THE CIG RESTRICTIONS, WIND GUSTS REMAIN FREQUENT IN THE 20 TO
25 KNOT RANGE. SHOULD SEE THESE TOP OUT IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DRY AIR MOVES IN. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN
20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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