897
FXUS61 KILN 152320
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
620 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING AND A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
MID-LEVEL LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S, OVERALL INSTABILITY IS NEGLIGIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE MAY EVENTUALLY FORM SO SOME
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED, A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT DROPPING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST PROVIDES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO, BUT OVERALL,
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO FAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER,
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN CLOSER TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING
TO START THE DAY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS ON THE BACK EDGE OF AN EXITING H5 TROUGH ON
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
AIR INTACT. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD, AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING IN FROM THE PLAINS AND EJECT
THROUGH OUR FA ON TUESDAY. THIS FORCING MECHANISM WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN ON TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE. QPF AMOUNTS FROM THIS QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 0.1" TO 0.25".
ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, A BROAD H5 RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CURRENTLY, FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO
HAVE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES, BUT A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAYTIME. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON HIGH TEMPS, BUT STILL REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT HIGHS
WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL. ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY FEW ENSEMBLES WITH ANY SURFACE BASED CAPE, SO THUNDER
POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LIMITED FOR NOW.
OVERALL, A WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAVING THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST THEN MORE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT JUST AS IT IS PASSING, SO IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. EVEN IF IT DOES,
EXPECT ONLY A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AT MOST. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH CLOUDS THEN CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL GUST OVER 20 KT AGAIN AFTER 15Z WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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