532
FXUS61 KILN 161059
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
559 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER, COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION TODAY AND MONDAY. A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF OUR AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. IN THE CAA PATTERN,
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND ALL THAT MUCH TODAY
WITH AFTERNOON READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE
LOW/MID 50S SOUTH. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN, RHS MAY DROP AS LOW AS
THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS COULD LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD
A MENTION TO THE HWO.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
AN ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DOWN INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED DRY/MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO 30
DEGREE RANGE WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST WILL OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AS IT
TRAVELS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION, OVERSPREADING THE REGION
PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP (MONDAY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY) INDICATES THAT THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SNOW MIX IN CENTRAL OHIO, HOWEVER, THERMAL
PROFILES INDICATE QUITE A WARM NOSE ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN THIS REGION, SO MIGHT HEDGE SLIGHTLY MORE
TOWARD AND ALL LIQUID SOLUTION. OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL OHIO, MONDAY
NIGHT LOWS FALL TO THE UPPER 30S.
PRECIP CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY, PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER REGION AND TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ALONG I-70 TO
LOW 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS,
PARTICULARLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH A LINGERING
STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ALONG KENTUCKY/OHIO MAY RESULT IN
SPORADIC SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ALOFT, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF A LARGE RIDGE, WITH A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING IN OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT MAJOR DISTURBANCE
TO THE REGION, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH SOMETIME ON
THURSDAY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY.
OBVIOUSLY, THIS KEEPS CONTINUED POPS PRESENT IN THE GRIDS AND THE
EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ACTIVE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST IN THE
20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL
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