463
FXUS61 KILN 171041
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
541 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION KEEPS SUNNY SKIES AROUND FOR
MONDAY BEFORE A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER REGION. TEMPERATURES
WARM SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER DISTURBANCE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAIN IN CONTROL ON
MONDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY. HAVE TRENDED TDS A TAD LOWER THAN THE BLEND, THOUGH, WITH THE
HIGH RIGHT OVER US, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT, SO FIRE WX
CONCERNS ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 40S
ALONG I-70 TO LOW 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN TURNS ACTIVE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OPENS UP AND MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION.
A CLOUD SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY EVENING, LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING NEAR THE TRI-STATE
BUT ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL OHIO TO COOL MORE
EFFECTIVELY. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS A MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION, ALLOWING THE MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE SURFACE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME,
PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL OHIO. AS SUCH, THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHAT INITIAL P-TYPE WILL BE AT PRECIPITATION ONSET FOR THIS AREA.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL TO THE MID/LOW 30S IN THIS REGION,
SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, CREATING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SLICK SPOTS, BUT FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IN MUCH HIGHER IN AN ALL
RAIN SOLUTION, AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ABOVE FREEZING THERMAL
PROFILE THROUGH ABOUT 800MB. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR, ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE AND NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER. ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA, SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING, RESULTING IN RAIN (ALBEIT, A COLD
RAIN).
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH SOME
THUNDER POSSIBLE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHERE PATCHY ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT. GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHIFTED THIS
WAVE FARTHER NORTH, RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST PLUME OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOVING INTO OUR AREA ON THE NOSE OF A LLJ.
AS SUCH, QPF FOOTPRINT, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND
SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY, HAS BEEN BUMPED UP CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO
SEVERAL DAYS AGO. MOST OF THAT AREA SHOULD RECEIVE AROUND 0.5" OF
RAINFALL AND THERE IS PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN GUIDANCE THAT A
SWATH OF ~1.00" IS EXPECTED THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN KENTUCKY, THOUGH
EXACT PLACEMENT VARIES. HOWEVER, WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
HIGHER PWATS, SOME EFFICIENT RAIN RATES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS.
UNFORTUNATELY, FOR OUR REGIONS IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AND WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THAT REMAIN IN DROUGHT STATUS, TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO ONLY
BE AROUND 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES FOR THIS EVENT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE RIDES EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TO
RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THEN CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD THEN SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. WE WILL THEN TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AGAIN BACK
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WINDS DECREASE AROUND SUNSET,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY
EVENING, HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN
AND LOWER MONDAY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING
IN BY TUESDAY MORNING (INCLUDED IN LONGER CVG TAF). RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
08 AND 12Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIMES, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
REDUCED VSBYS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SLEET MAY OCCUR AT
PRECIP ONSET AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES (KDAY, KCMH, KLCK) GIVEN EARLY
MORNING ARRIVAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT, SO KEPT TAFS AS
RAIN FOR NOW. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY, AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LIFR
CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING. MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CA
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