235
FXUS61 KILN 171747
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1247 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MIDWEEK AND BEYOND,
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY TREND WARMER
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN ELONGATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND. AFTER A VERY CHILLY START WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MANY LOCALES, THE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
BY LATE AFTERNOON. A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED NEAR/E OF I-75 AS
SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER, AS WE PROGRESS TOWARD/PAST MIDNIGHT, TEMPS WILL
PLATEAU BEFORE NUDGING UP SEVERAL DEGREES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS
THICKER CLOUDS MOVE IN AND CALM WINDS TRANSITION TO LIGHT SE FLOW BY
SUNRISE.
FOR LATE TONIGHT, A COMPACT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, WITH
LARGE-SCALE WAA ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE ILN
FA INTO THE DAYTIME. DESPITE A GRADUAL WEAKENING/FLATTENING OF THE
OVERALL SYSTEM, SOME ROBUST DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
EVOLVE INTO THE PREDAWN TIME FRAME AS A SEASONABLY-POTENT H8 LLJ ON
THE ORDER OF 40-45KTS RESULTS IN A CORRIDOR OF FAIRLY STRONG MASS
CONVERGENCE. THIS ENHANCED MOISTURE/MASS CONVERGENCE (AND
CORRESPONDING FRONTOGENESIS) WILL ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE SHIELD
OF PCPN TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND
BEYOND, WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT PCPN FAVORED NEAR/S OF
THE OH RVR WHERE THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
SUSTAINED THE LONGEST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE PCPN FOR MOST OF THE ILN FA
WILL BE JUST A COLD RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SOME BRIEFING RA/SN MIXING TO EVOLVE FROM WC THROUGH CENTRAL OH
IN THE SEVERAL HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. THE TEMPS IN CENTRAL OH, IN
PARTICULAR, WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE FREEZING MARK AS THE LIGHT PCPN
OVERSPREADS THE AREA, SO THIS IS THE GENERAL LOCATION THAT WILL BE
WATCHED THE CLOSEST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RA/SN MIX
OR EVEN IP/FZRA ON TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON FZRA POTENTIAL IS
VERY LOW AT THIS TIME AND MOST SOLUTIONS/FCST SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD
A SFC/BL TEMP PROFILE THAT IS WARM ENOUGH TO YIELD PRIMARILY RAIN.
HOWEVER, CERTAINLY SOME BRIEF SLICK SPOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF, AND
ONLY IF, AIR/SFC TEMPS ARE NOT ABLE TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING PRIOR TO
PCPN ONSET. CURRENTLY, HI-RES PROBABILITY FOR AIR TEMPS TO REMAIN AT
OR BELOW FREEZING IN CENTRAL OH (DELAWARE THROUGH PICKAWAY THROUGH
LICKING COUNTIES) BETWEEN 10Z-12Z ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20%.
AS WE PROGRESS TOWARD MID-MORNING AND BEYOND TUESDAY, PTYPE SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE (IF IT DIDN'T START THAT WAY),
WITH SOME STRONG LIFT/CONVERGENCE CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF
STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN (AND ISO TS) POTENTIAL FROM SE IN THROUGH FAR
SRN OH INTO N KY WELL INTO THE EVENING. TOTAL LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PCPN
WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR/N OF I-70 TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1" NEAR THE OH RVR (AND POINTS FURTHER S). THE
GRADIENT OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE EXTREMELY TIGHT (LIKELY
EVOLVING BETWEEN THE OH RVR AND THE I-70 CORRIDOR), BUT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR.
THE OTHER ITEM TO MENTION IS AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH TS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH FAR SRN PORTIONS
(ESPECIALLY NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR IN THE TRI-STATE) OF THE LOCAL AREA
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FORCING AND DEEP-LAYER
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE INCREDIBLY STRONG, BUT THE LL THERMO
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE UNFAVORABLE AND INHIBIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS OR TORNADIC ACTIVITY. THE SFC WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE
TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD EVEN INTO THE EVENING, WITH ANY INSTBY LOCALLY
STAYING ELEVATED AS THE BL STRUGGLES TO WARM AND THE WARM SECTOR
STRUGGLES TO EXPAND. SO WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TS AND SMALL
HAIL NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR, THE PROSPECT OF ANY OTHER SEVERE WEATHER
(STRONG WINDS OR TORNADIC ACTIVITY) ACROSS THE ILN FA REMAINS /VERY/
LOW.
REGARDLESS OF PTYPE EVOLUTION IN CENTRAL OH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, IT
IS GOING TO BE A CHILLY, CLOUDY, RAINY DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH A RAPIDLY
MOISTENING LL PROFILE KEEPING HIGH TEMPS IN CHECK, RANGING FROM THE
LOWER/MID 40S IN THE S TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE N.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHTEST FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF EC IN AND WC OH,
WHERE TOTAL RAINFALL MAY ONLY BE AROUND 0.2 TO 0.4 INCHES FOR THIS
EVENT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HEIGHTS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE UPPER S/W THAT EXITS TUE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING AN EAST WIND TO MUCH OF
THE AREA, IN PARTICULAR NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AT H8, MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH AND THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SPRINKLES BEHIND THE
FRONT IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CWA. NBM DID NOT SHOW THIS YESTERDAY
BUT APPEARS TO HAVE CAUGHT ON FOR TODAY'S FORECAST OF THIS PERIOD.
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT TO A ZONAL WLY AND KEEPS THIS ORIENTATION
UNTIL 00Z SAT. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CROP UP AT THIS LEVEL AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE S/W ACTIVITY AROUND A STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED
IN NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE INTERACTION OF S/W ACTION ROTATING
AROUND THIS WITH A WEAKER UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS EVOLVES QUITE
DIFFERENTLY, ADDING A HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
EVOLUTION. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN S/W ACTIVITY, PRECIP IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST CWA LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING,
ENDING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CANADIAN HAS A RIDGE BUILDING DURING THIS
TIME AND WHILE PRECIP DOES LOOK LIKELY, FORECAST LINGERS IT A BIT
LONGER THROUGH DAYBREAK SAT THAN I WOULD EXPECT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE A STRATIFORM AND POTENTIALLY SOAKING RAINFALL, ENOUGH
UPWARD MOTION IN SOUTHERN CWA COULD INTRODUCE SOME DEEPER CONVECTION
AND PRODUCE SOME THUNDER.
CANADIAN CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A DIFFERENT L/W PATTERN GOING
FORWARD, AND FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD. ALL THIS BEING SAID, DRY AND
COOL LOOKS TO BE THE RESULTANT SFC WX FOR THE PERIOD AFTER FRI/FRI
NIGHT PRECIP ENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. WE WILL THEN TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AGAIN
BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA, SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST
ON SATURDAY WITH A PUSH OF COOL AIR BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, EVEN AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD FROM THE W TOWARD/PAST 00Z. LIGHT NW AT AROUND 10KTS OR
LESS WILL SUBSIDE AND BECOME LIGHT/VRB PAST 00Z AS WELL.
BY LATE TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE PROFILE
SATURATES. VFR CIGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR PROGRESSIVELY FROM NW TO
SE TOWARD BETWEEN 15Z-18Z TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RA WILL OVERSPREAD
FROM THE W BETWEEN 10Z-13Z, BECOMING STEADY FOR THE FINAL PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIMES, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBYS, ESPECIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF
RA/SN MIX OR SLEET AT PRECIP ONSET AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES (KDAY,
KCMH, KLCK) GIVEN EARLY MORNING ARRIVAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE
MOMENT, SO KEPT TAFS AS RA FOR NOW. SOME TS MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE END OF THE KCVG 30-HR TAF, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE FCST AT THIS JUNCTURE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LIFR
CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...
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