931
FXUS61 KILN 181449
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
949 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY TRENDING
WARMER.
NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM/ UNTIL 6PM WEDNESDAY
MORNING UPDATE...
BASED ON AREA ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES, CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE EXPIRATION TIME. IMPACTS DID NOT
APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING WITH MORE TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS FOUND IN THE AREAS
OF MODERATE RAIN.
WITH THIS AREA OF RAIN, WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME THUNDER OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA, SOUTHWEST OHIO, AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS
ACTIVITY EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS SUSTAINING IT. ALSO PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA
ARE THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES OF 1" OR GREATER. LOCATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE SEEN ROUGHLY 0.3-1" OF RAINFALL
SO FAR THIS MORNING. IF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LINGERS OVER THE
SAME AREA, TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND RATES WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR FLOODING. THIS THREAT IS LIKELY LOCALIZED ENOUGH TO
AVOID A FLOOD WATCH, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS IT
MOVES IN.
OTHERWISE, THE VERY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY REMAINS MARGINAL. 12Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT SURFACE INSTABILITY LIKELY STRUGGLES TO REACH FAR
ENOUGH NORTH, HOWEVER, ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
ENERGY TO SUPPORT A STORM OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL. THERE IS NO
EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME THAT THE THREAT WILL TREND NORTHWARD, EVEN
IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM AND OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS LIKELY STILL THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...(1:49AM)
THE WELL ADVERTISED SHORTWAVE IS ENCROACHING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION... AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF INDIANA AND IS ENCROACHING INTO THE TRI-STATE A
TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE, SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MUCH OF CENTRAL OHIO AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
ARE STILL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THESE AREAS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW 30S AND EVEN UPPER 20S. ROAD TEMPERATURE SENSORS
IN THIS REGION ARE REPORTING ANYWHERE FROM 32 TO 37 DEGREES. THERMAL
PROFILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
RAIN IN THIS REGION WHEN IT ARRIVES. GIVEN THE CONTINUED COOLING
EXPECTED, THERE IS CONCERN THAT PRECIPITATION ONSET AROUND 11Z IN
THIS AREA WILL HIT SUB-FREEZING SURFACES AND FREEZE ON CONTACT
(FREEZING RAIN). DUE TO THESE CONCERNS, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OHIO, WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST. WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH TRENDS OVERNIGHT, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR A BRIEF
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IF ROAD TEMPS DO END UP FALLING BELOW
FREEZING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN PRECIP ARRIVAL RIGHT AROUND THE TUESDAY
MORNING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE. EITHER WAY- WINTER WX ADVISORY OR NOT-
SLICK SPOTS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING IN THOSE AREAS AND
CAREFUL TRAVEL IS RECOMMENDED. TEMPERATURES RISE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE, QUICKLY ELIMINATING ANY ICY THREATS.
AREAS OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL OHIO ARE ALREADY UNDER A DECENT BLANKET OF
CLOUDS AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING AND SURFACE COOLING HAS BEEN
STUNTED APPRECIABLY. AS SUCH, THERE IS LESS CONCERN FOR SLICK SPOTS.
HOWEVER, A VERY COLD RAIN WILL MOVE IN, MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITY
AT TIMES, CREATING FOR A VERY MESSY TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. BE
PREPARED FOR PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY WHEN DRIVING DUE TO RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
TUESDAY, WITH LOW 50S POSSIBLE FOR AREAS IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
INTRODUCED NEAR THE TRI-STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. CAMS INTRODUCE A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM THREAT JUUUUST TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS THAT WE'LL BE A BIT
TOO GRUNGED OUT OVER OUR AREA FOR A SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM FOR OUR TRI-STATE COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A
SATURATED COLUMN, SOME EFFECTIVE RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED,
LEADING TO QUICK RUNOFF AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS.
CONCURRENT WITH THIS, RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE IN A WEST TO EAST PATTERN,
INDICATING THAT TRAINING CELLS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES. CURRENTLY HAVE AN
INCH TO 1.25" IN THE TOTAL QPF GRID FOR AREAS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER,
BUT CAMS INDICATE THAT A LOCALLY HIGHER SWATH IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE
SOUTH OF I-70 AND NORTH OF I-64. THIS VARIATION IS DUE TO REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE EXACTLY THAT WEST TO EAST LINE OF CELLS WILL
LINE UP.
PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT AN INVERSION AROUND
850MB WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED AND LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
IT RIDES EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH SATURDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS HEADING INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
PCPN THEN CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITIES ACROSS OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
COULD LEAD TO A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST
TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST WHILE HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT ALL TAF SITES LOOK TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING, SO FREEZING RAIN IS NO LONGER A THREAT.
RAIN CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES. CIGS WILL FALL, FROM WEST TO EAST, TO MVFR THEN
EVENTUALLY IFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR
PATCHY LIFR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ONLY HAD ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT KILN AT THIS TIME. EITHER WAY, ANTICIPATING
THAT ALL SITES WILL GET SOCKED IN WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SIMILARLY, VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS
THE REGION, LIKELY TO MVFR, WITH RAINFALL.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
EASTERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERNLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE
IS A PATCHY SIGNAL FOR LLWS SOUTH OF THE CVG AND LUK SITES, MOSTLY
CONFINED TO KENTUCKY FOR TUESDAY 22Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY AROUND 3Z. FOR
NOW, DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS BUT IF GUIDANCE TRENDS THIS SIGNAL
FARTHER NORTH, IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA/MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...CA/MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CA
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