288
FXUS61 KILN 181959
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
259 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY TRENDING
WARMER.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
INITIAL WAVE OF STEADY RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. GENERALLY OBSERVING UP A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WHERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED, AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 1.5-2.0+, WITH THE MAIN
CORRIDOR OF THIS RAIN FROM OSGOOD, IN, THROUGH CINCINNATI AND INTO
CLERMONT/BROWN COUNTIES IN OHIO. WHILE THIS INITIAL ROUND IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE, THE ACTUAL SYSTEM IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING, BRINGING A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AIDS RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH, PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA, SOUTHERN OHIO, AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SATURATED GROUND MY RESULT IN FLOODING
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES. THE RAIN OCCURRING RIGHT NOW HAS ALSO HELPED TO SATURATE SOILS
AND WILL AID IN RAINFALL RUNOFF ONCE IT RESUMES. A FLOOD WATCH IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF THE EVENING TRENDS TOWARD HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
FORECAST WITH THE SECOND ROUND, BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE MUCH LESS,
CLOSER TO A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS SHEAR, MAY SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS IS ALREADY BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA. A FEW
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE LIKELY, BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORM
UPDRAFTS (LACK OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY - SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS),
EVEN DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE, THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE NIGHT, THE LOW PRESSURE DROPS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT, LOW STRATUS/FOG
IS EXPECTED. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME TO ADVERTISE IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY, LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LINGERING FOG
MAY REMAIN UNTIL MID-MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVENTS
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO MUCH WITH MID 40S (NORTH) TO MID 50S
(SOUTH) AS THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES INTO
THE OVERNIGHT SO LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ABLE TO DROP TOO FAR
DESPITE THE COOLER AIR MASS PROVIDED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO START THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, THERE IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE OVERALL
THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
RAIN AND POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
QUIET, HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM STARTS TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE IS MORE VARIABILITY ON SEVERAL ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM,
HOWEVER DURING THIS SPECIFIC TIMEFRAME IT IS EXPECTED TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BUSY AVIATION PERIOD AS STEADY RAIN, SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS,
AND LINGERING CLOUDS OCCUR. THIS AFTERNOON, THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS TAKEN A PAUSE ACROSS CVG/LUK/ILN, BUT LOWERING CIGS ARE BEGINNING
TO RESULT IN MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. THESE CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER
LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR ALL SITES. CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME LOWER VISIBILITY BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PROVIDE
SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. LOWER STRATUS MAY END BEING THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.
BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS, ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN, ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
CLOSEST TO CVG/LUK, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME THUNDER AT DAY/ILN, BUT
ODDS WERE LESS THAN PROB30.
FOR WEDNESDAY, NORTHEAST FLOW IS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. IFR CIGS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MCGINNIS
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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