212
FXUS61 KILN 190218
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
918 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TO END TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN RETURNS THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE AREA. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER NORTHWEST OHIO TO CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN PA BY 06Z AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU CENTRAL KY.
INVERTED SURFACE TROF TO PIVOT EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE
AREA. ONLY EXPECT A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. IN LOW LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW - LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS FORMED. SOME OF THE FOG
IS PATCHY DENSE - ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO MESSAGE THE IMPACTS OF THE
PATCHY DENSE FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FOG AND ASSESS THE
COVERAGE AND TRENDS AND THE NEED FOR A POSSIBLE ADVISORY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INITIAL WAVE OF STEADY RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. GENERALLY
OBSERVING UP A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED, AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN
1.5-2.0+, WITH THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF THIS RAIN FROM OSGOOD, IN,
THROUGH CINCINNATI AND INTO CLERMONT/BROWN COUNTIES IN OHIO. WHILE
THIS INITIAL ROUND IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE, THE ACTUAL SYSTEM IS STILL
WEST OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING, BRINGING A SECOND ROUND OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE
TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AIDS RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH, PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA, SOUTHERN OHIO, AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SATURATED GROUND MY RESULT IN FLOODING
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES. THE RAIN OCCURRING RIGHT NOW HAS ALSO HELPED TO SATURATE SOILS
AND WILL AID IN RAINFALL RUNOFF ONCE IT RESUMES. A FLOOD WATCH IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF THE EVENING TRENDS TOWARD HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
FORECAST WITH THE SECOND ROUND, BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE MUCH LESS,
CLOSER TO A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS SHEAR, MAY SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS IS ALREADY BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA. A FEW
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE LIKELY, BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORM
UPDRAFTS (LACK OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY - SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS),
EVEN DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE, THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE NIGHT, THE LOW PRESSURE DROPS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT, LOW STRATUS/FOG
IS EXPECTED. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME TO ADVERTISE IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRY, LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LINGERING FOG
MAY REMAIN UNTIL MID-MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVENTS
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO MUCH WITH MID 40S (NORTH) TO MID 50S
(SOUTH) AS THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES INTO
THE OVERNIGHT SO LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ABLE TO DROP TOO FAR
DESPITE THE COOLER AIR MASS PROVIDED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO START THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHILE ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, THERE IS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE OVERALL
THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
RAIN AND POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
QUIET, HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM STARTS TO APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE IS MORE VARIABILITY ON SEVERAL ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM,
HOWEVER DURING THIS SPECIFIC TIMEFRAME IT IS EXPECTED TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE LOW NEAR EVV TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST THRU CENTRAL KY AND INTO
THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES WHERE SOME HAIL AND WIND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 20 KT RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AND LIFR. GENERALLY HAVE MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES.
EXPECT THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO BE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. IFR
CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN MVFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MCGINNIS/AR
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS/AR
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page