435
FXUS61 KILN 191029
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
529 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN RETURNS BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. TEMPERATURES TREND
WARMER AND REMAIN SLIGHT ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
DENSE STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION UNDER A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. WHILE A HANDFUL OF SITES ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES ABOVE
6 MILES, THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NOW REPORTING AT 5 MILES OR LESS.
THERE WAS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER STRATUS WOULD DEVELOP LOW
ENOUGH TO IMPACT GROUND LEVEL VISIBILITY, BUT RECENT OBS INDICATE
THAT THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE TRAPPED AND PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THROUGH 10 AM ON
WEDNESDAY.
FOG/ LOW DENSE STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
IT WILL FEEL LIKE ANOTHER GREY, GRUNGY DAY. CLOUDS MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL RESULTING IN
VERY WEAK FLOW AND THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LINGERING WILL KEEP A
THICK BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE AND ONLY RISE TO THE UPPER 40S/ LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BUT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT FLOW WILL BE NEARLY CALM AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED. ONCE AGAIN, EXPECT LOW LEVEL DENSE STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TO THE UPPER 30S NORTH
OF I70 AND LOW 40S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
THURSDAY CONTINUES THE PATTERN, WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS RISE TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. BY THURSDAY EVENING, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE WELL EAST,
OVER THE ATLANTIC, AND A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE ON THE HORIZON TO OUR
WEST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A MID LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF A BROADER UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL MOVE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME INITIAL MID
LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN THEN
CONTINUING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL BUT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE PCPN WILL THEN TAPER
OFF DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY AND CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. SOME UNCERTAINTY THEN ARISES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST US. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A DEVELOPING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR NOW THOUGH THROUGH TUESDAY GIVEN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY DAYTIME HOURS, WITH MOST
SITES REMAINING AT IFR THROUGH AM HOURS, IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CMH AND LCK MAY BRIEFLY BREAKOUT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THICKEN AND LOWER,
REDUCING CIGS BACK TO LOW END MVFR AND IFR FOR ALL SITES. GUIDANCE
ISN'T HITTING REDUCED VSBYS QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS WERE,
BUT STILL ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN SITES (CVG LUK
ILN) WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE ROBUST.
VERY WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FLOW BECOMES NEARLY CALM WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CA
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