539
FXUS61 KILN 192313
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
613 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER THAT WILL LAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY.
RAIN RETURNS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER AND
REMAIN SLIGHT ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
A SHALLOW HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGIONS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TYPICALLY PROVIDES FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS, THE MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE IS TRAPPED OVER THE OHIO RIVER REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY OVERCAST FOR THAT PARTICULAR REGION,
HOWEVER, SOME DRY AIR HAS BEEN ABLE PENETRATE INTO THE MOISTURE,
RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA STRETCHING FROM DAYTON TO COLUMBUS. FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS AND STRATO-CUMULUS CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THE LESS CLOUD COVER, AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE REST OF
THE AREA, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE, CLOUD COVER REMAINS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR STRUGGLING TO MOVE SOUTH.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST TONIGHT, THE
MOISTURE TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO SLOWLY REBOUND TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW STRATUS ONCE AGAIN PRESENTS THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. MENTIONS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY ARE CURRENTLY DISCUSSED IN THE HWO WITH PATCHY/AREAS
WORDING FOR FOG IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO DROP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO GIVEN THE LOWER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN,
TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA SUPPRESSES THE RIDGE LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING. TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO CLIMB A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY IN THE 50S. THE AREA
REMAINS DRY MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY, BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING OUT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD.
THE FIRST SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY, RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. WHILE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN LIKELY HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY, INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES ARE
ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA, SOUTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. CLOSER TO
FRIDAY MORNING, THESE CHANCES EXPAND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA, WITH
HIGHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE LONG TERM. WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THERE IS LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND THEREFORE OVERALL THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAIN AND POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL LATE IN
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT
SOME COOLER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK IN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER OVERALL AT THIS POINT IN TIME EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALL RAIN. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF. THE NBM LINGERS A SMALL AREA OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT IS LOW.
SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE A DRY
TIMEFRAME. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MORE UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY
WITH THE SYSTEM INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON A SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK AND LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS
RAIN WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES IF THERE WILL BE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT ENDS. THERE IS NOT AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND IF THERE WILL BE WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT ENDS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES. AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS, A
SMALL, MOSTLY CLOUD-FREE AREA WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS A WEAK SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. TIMING THIS INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND LOWERING OF THE BASES IS UNCERTAIN... HOWEVER, HAVE USED
THE LATEST GUIDANCE TO ESTIMATE WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
ON THURSDAY, GFS SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR MIXING IN AND ALLOWING LOW
STRATUS TO IMPROVE. AGAIN, TIMING IS UNCERTAIN HERE SINCE THE NAM IS
MUCH SLOWER IN BRINGING CATEGORIES UP.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH RAIN BEGINNING AT CVG TO
CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED TAF PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MCGINNIS
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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