643
FXUS61 KILN 201817
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
117 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE
STUBBORN. RAIN WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
BEYOND THE IMPROVEMENT IN LOW LEVEL VISIBILITY, THERE HAS BEEN VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN CURRENT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY. THE LOCAL AREA IS CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW- LEVEL INVERSION CONTINUES TO HOLD STRONG, BUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY, THERE ARE FEW SIGNS OF THE MOISTURE
BECOMING SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR CLOUDS TO BREAK UP. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THICKEN, PREVENTING MORE EFFICIENT MIXING/DRYING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TO CLEAR IS ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO.
GIVEN ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO WARM
WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF REACHING THE 50S BEING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO.
THE WEAK SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH IS SPREADING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL INTO
THE TRI-STATE AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY, BUT WILL REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL
BETTER SUPPORT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES, FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING. PERSISTENCE FORECASTING WOULD SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG CONDITIONS IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS. A TROUGH ENTERING
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ACT AS A SUPPRESSANT TO THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS, PERHAPS LIMITING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BETTER
RAINFALL. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE HWO WORDING FOR THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE ENTIRE
AREA SHOULD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF OVERCAST SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG
IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE
SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL IN
ALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50" WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1" BY THE TIME THE RAIN CONCLUDES.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES, BUT DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE, UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A SPREAD IN TIMING
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE SOME RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION AS WELL ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH
DURING THESE TIME PERIODS AND THERE IS MORE VARIABILITY ON COLD AIR
ON IF THERE WILL BE A WINTRY ELEMENT TO IT. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER,
MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED TO BE HAVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN WHEN PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING. THERE WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH THE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PESSIMISTIC AVIATION OUTLOOKS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE REGION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING. FOR
THE IMMEDIATE TIME PERIOD (NEXT 6 HOURS), SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED, PERHAPS OUT OF IFR. ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY,
THERE SOME SIGN OF IMPROVEMENT, AND ENOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS IN PLACE TO
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RESTRICTIONS ACROSS CVG/LUK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE, THE ENTIRE PERIOD IS COVERED BY IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VIS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEPER
MOISTURE. CHANCES FOR RAIN ALSO INCREASE INTO THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT CLEAR UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING WITH AVIATION IMPROVEMENTS FINALLY ARRIVING DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY, BUT WILL GO WEAK AND
VARIABLE TOMORROW AS THE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
REGION.
OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MCGINNIS
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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