601
FXUS61 KILN 202343
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE
STUBBORN. RAIN WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
BEYOND THE IMPROVEMENT IN LOW LEVEL VISIBILITY, THERE HAS BEEN VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN CURRENT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY. THE LOCAL AREA IS CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW- LEVEL INVERSION CONTINUES TO HOLD STRONG, BUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY, THERE ARE FEW SIGNS OF THE MOISTURE
BECOMING SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR CLOUDS TO BREAK UP. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THICKEN, PREVENTING MORE EFFICIENT MIXING/DRYING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TO CLEAR IS ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO.
GIVEN ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO WARM
WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF REACHING THE 50S BEING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO.
THE WEAK SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH IS SPREADING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL INTO
THE TRI-STATE AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY, BUT WILL REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL
BETTER SUPPORT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES, FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING. PERSISTENCE FORECASTING WOULD SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG CONDITIONS IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS. A TROUGH ENTERING
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ACT AS A SUPPRESSANT TO THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS, PERHAPS LIMITING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BETTER
RAINFALL. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE HWO WORDING FOR THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE ENTIRE
AREA SHOULD EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF OVERCAST SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG
IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE
SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALL IN
ALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25" TO 0.50" WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1" BY THE TIME THE RAIN CONCLUDES.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES, BUT DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE, UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A SPREAD IN TIMING
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE SOME RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION AS WELL ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH
DURING THESE TIME PERIODS AND THERE IS MORE VARIABILITY ON COLD AIR
ON IF THERE WILL BE A WINTRY ELEMENT TO IT. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER,
MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED TO BE HAVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN WHEN PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING. THERE WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH THE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SATURATED NEAR-SURFACE LAYER COINCIDENT WITH A STRONG SURFACE-BASED
INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE IFR AND LIFR CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG OVERNIGHT. NEXT DISTURBANCE
LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS, PERHAPS
REACHING NORTH TO ILN AT TIMES. SINCE TERMINALS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT, WINDS WILL CHANGE TO EASTERLY BUT REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ON FRIDAY.
UNCERTAINTY IS FOCUSED ON HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR VISIBILITY TO DROP
OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE MEAGER SURFACE HEATING FROM EARLIER TODAY. IN
ADDITION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW LOW VISIBILITY WILL GO
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IFR LEVELS ARE LIKELY WHILE LIFR IS
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MCGINNIS
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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