108
FXUS61 KILN 210629
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA, BUT
THERE HAS BEEN IMPROVEMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES, EVEN IF IT
REMAINS CLOUDY. EXPECT THE FOG TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW EXTENSIVE THIS WILL BE
AND HOW LOW VISIBILITIES MIGHT GO IS LOW. VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN WESTERN OHIO
AND HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE DENSE FOG MAY
EXPAND A BIT FURTHER BEFORE THE NIGHT IS DONE BUT IT IS CERTAINLY
NOT CLEAR, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK EAST AND APPROACH
THE TRI-STATE BY THE END OF THE DAY. WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OF THE
LOW MAY NUDGE INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. INITIAL RAIN THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. BUT THAT
MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER OVERALL. RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD INTO
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY NOT REACHING CENTRAL OHIO
UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR RATES ARE NOT LOOKING
TOO CONCERNING AT THIS POINT. ONCE AGAIN, FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE ON
THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO WEST
VIRGINIA DURING THE EVENING TAKING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH IT.
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL BE LAGGING A BIT, BUT ONCE THIS PASSES ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AND THERE IS CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
THAT CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. TIMING DIFFERENCES HAVE LESSENED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THERE
IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT ALL OF MONDAY WILL STAY DRY WITH RAIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION LATER, MAINLY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE. STILL SOME SIGNAL THAT MAYBE A LITTLE
HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD SPREAD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN
OHIO, BUT THE TREND IS FOR MORE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KEEP THIS SOUTH
OF THE REGION.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT
THIS JUNCTURE. OVER TIME, THE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES OF MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BECOME QUITE PRONOUNCED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARDS. THIS REFLECTS RATHER WIDE VARIABILITY IN
FORECASTS OF THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE/CLOSED LOW. A
LARGE NUMBER OF THE ECMWF MEMBERS ARE ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE WITH INDICATIONS THAT THE SHORT WAVE COULD PIVOT AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ONLY A FEW GFS MEMBERS ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS. ABOUT A THIRD OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE ARE VERY DEEP AND SLOW WHICH RESULTS IN THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND THE REST OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE ARE IN BETWEEN.
BETWEEN THE EXIT OF THE FIRST SYSTEM ON TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME RAIN, BUT
IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE. BUT IT WILL BE DREARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, IT MAY
BE A BIT BRISK WITH TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SITUATION WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IS AT KDAY WHERE LIFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST WITH ONLY A
BRIEF LIFTING TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
MVFR TO IFR. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART AT THE
COLUMBUS TERMINALS, BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER/WHEN THERE
MAY BE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. KILN HAD IMPROVED BUT LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE REDEVELOPING THERE AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO LIFR. AS
AT KCMH/KLCK, IT IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT CLEAR THAT THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF TIME WHERE CEILINGS LIFT TO IFR. VISIBILITIES AT KILN MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL REMAIN IFR OR LESS.
THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS HAVE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WITH WIDELY
VARYING GUIDANCE OF HOW CONDITIONS WILL EVOLVE. CEILINGS ARE VFR BUT
THERE ARE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THERE IS AN MVFR DECK TO THE
WEST AND THE IFR/LIFR DECK TO THE NORTH AND EITHER COULD BE WHAT
EVENTUALLY AFFECTS THESE SITES. TAFS HAVE GONE WITH THE FORMER BEING
WHAT MOVES INTO KCVG/KLUK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP IN THE CINCINNATI REGION AHEAD OF AN AREA OF
RAIN. RAIN WILL OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z, BUT THIS WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY. IF ANYTHING, THERE COULD BE SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT.
OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ042-060.
KY...NONE.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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