358
FXUS61 KILN 211137
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
637 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
FOG OCCURRING ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL IMPROVE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK EAST AND APPROACH
THE TRI-STATE BY THE END OF THE DAY. WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OF THE
LOW MAY NUDGE INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. INITIAL RAIN, WHICH SHOULD BE
RATHER LIGHT, IS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND HAS ALREADY
MADE IT INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS WILL MAKE
SLOW EAST NORTHEAST PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY NOT REACHING CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR RATES ARE NOT LOOKING TOO CONCERNING AT THIS
POINT. ONCE AGAIN, FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO WEST
VIRGINIA DURING THE EVENING TAKING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH IT.
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL BE LAGGING A BIT, BUT ONCE THIS PASSES ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AND THERE IS CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
THAT CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND
DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. TIMING DIFFERENCES HAVE LESSENED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THERE
IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT ALL OF MONDAY WILL STAY DRY WITH RAIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION LATER, MAINLY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE. STILL SOME SIGNAL THAT MAYBE A LITTLE
HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD SPREAD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN
OHIO, BUT THE TREND IS FOR MORE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KEEP THIS SOUTH
OF THE REGION.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT
THIS JUNCTURE. OVER TIME, THE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES OF MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS BECOME QUITE PRONOUNCED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARDS. THIS REFLECTS RATHER WIDE VARIABILITY IN
FORECASTS OF THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE/CLOSED LOW. A
LARGE NUMBER OF THE ECMWF MEMBERS ARE ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE WITH INDICATIONS THAT THE SHORT WAVE COULD PIVOT AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ONLY A FEW GFS MEMBERS ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS. ABOUT A THIRD OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE ARE VERY DEEP AND SLOW WHICH RESULTS IN THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND THE REST OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE ARE IN BETWEEN.
BETWEEN THE EXIT OF THE FIRST SYSTEM ON TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME RAIN, BUT
IT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE. BUT IT WILL BE DREARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, IT MAY
BE A BIT BRISK WITH TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CEILINGS IN THE CINCINNATI AREA WILL FALL TO IFR AS LIGHT RAIN
SPREADS EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY FALL TO
LIFR WITH VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO IFR. ELSEWHERE, CEILINGS ARE
ALREADY LIFR, BUT MAY FLIRT WITH THE LIFR/IFR THRESHOLD AS THE RAIN
REACHES THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE IMPROVING
FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR. RAIN WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z, BUT IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ042-060.
KY...NONE.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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