723
FXUS61 KILN 220610
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
110 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
SKIES WILL FINALLY CLEAR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN WILL
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. TRAILING SHORT WAVE OVER ILLINOIS WILL ALSO PASS TO THE
EAST BY THE START OF THE DAY TAKING REMAINING LIGHT RAIN WITH IT.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY
NOT OCCUR IN PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL
THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, BUT MAY BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS THAT WILL NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
A SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WILL BRING A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SOME MID CLOUDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS WHETHER THERE COULD
ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BUT EVEN MOST PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE IN
THIS REGARD CLEAR OUT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE IN
WEAKENING A SHORT WAVE AS IT LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN
SPREADING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND PASSING OFF TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY.
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE CONCERNING ROBUST ENERGY EMERGING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ITS MEMBERS THAT A FASTER AND MORE OPEN WAVE
WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE CLOSES OFF THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS A BIT SLOWER TO
TAKE THIS SYSTEM EAST. ABOUT HALF OF THE GFS MEMBERS ALIGN WITH THE
CANADIAN CONSENSUS WHILE A THIRD OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE CREATES A MUCH
STRONGER CLOSED LOW AND IS EVEN SLOWER. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SO THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL
SYSTEM AFFECTS WHEN FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR IN OUR REGION. THAT
VARIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ON THE FAST END AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ON THE SLOW SIDE. BETWEEN THE RAIN SHIELD DEPARTING IN THE EARLY PART
OF TUESDAY AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN.
COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE STARTING TO BREAK FROM KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK, AND
EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE PERIODS WITH MVFR CEILINGS, OPTED TO KEEP A
PREVAILING LOWER CEILING UNTIL THAT DECK FINAL CLEARS AT THESE SITES.
A VFR CEILING WILL LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT.
ELSEWHERE, IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE, LIFTING TO
MVFR BEFORE CLEARING. VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. ONCE LOWER CEILINGS BREAK, IT WILL BE
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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