424
FXUS61 KILN 221128
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
628 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
SKIES WILL FINALLY CLEAR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN WILL
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
FROM NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS MAY NOT OCCUR IN PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO UNTIL THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, BUT MAY BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THAT WILL NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATER.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
A SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WILL BRING A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SOME MID CLOUDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS WHETHER THERE COULD
ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BUT EVEN MOST PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE IN
THIS REGARD CLEAR OUT THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE IN
WEAKENING A SHORT WAVE AS IT LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN
SPREADING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND PASSING OFF TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY.
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE CONCERNING ROBUST ENERGY EMERGING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ITS MEMBERS THAT A FASTER AND MORE OPEN WAVE
WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE CLOSES OFF THE SYSTEM AND THUS IS A BIT SLOWER TO
TAKE THIS SYSTEM EAST. ABOUT HALF OF THE GFS MEMBERS ALIGN WITH THE
CANADIAN CONSENSUS WHILE A THIRD OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE CREATES A MUCH
STRONGER CLOSED LOW AND IS EVEN SLOWER. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SO THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL
SYSTEM AFFECTS WHEN FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR IN OUR REGION. THAT
VARIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ON THE FAST END AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ON THE SLOW SIDE. BETWEEN THE RAIN SHIELD DEPARTING IN THE EARLY PART
OF TUESDAY AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN.
COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SOLID LOWER CEILINGS HAVE CLEARED, BUT THERE IS STILL AN MVFR DECK
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. SO THE TERMINALS COULD STILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS IN THE EARLY HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. THEREAFTER, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH 4-6KFT DECK SCATTERING OUT DURING THE DAY. MID CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT WILL SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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