042
FXUS61 KILN 222251
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
551 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WET CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH PART OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF AND GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE AROUND CENTRAL OHIO OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER DID
NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST WITH LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WEST OF THE HIGH BRINGS IN WARMER AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE
THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS. FORECAST HIGHS REACH
INTO THE 50S UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
LIFTING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THESE TWO FEATURES OVERLAPPING INCREASED
MOISTURE.
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT LAGGING MUCH FURTHER TO THE WEST. CURRENTLY, FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS NOT FORECAST TO OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS RAIN
CHANCES PERSIST AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
RAIN CHANCES FINALLY DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATER ON WEDNESDAY
FROM WEST TO EAST.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY. THANKSGIVING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO HAVE HIGHS NEAR 40, A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, AND A WESTERLY
BREEZE.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ALTHOUGH THE MVFR AND LOW VFR CLOUDS HAVE EXITED THE AREA, MID CLOUDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA ONCE AGAIN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS BETWEEN 8-10KFT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOME BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CLOUDS
MOVE IN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CIGS, ESPECIALLY FOR WRN SITES OF KDAY/KCVG/KLUK/KILN BETWEEN ABOUT
10Z-15Z, BUT DID NOT YET HAVE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FOR KCMH/KLCK.
THESE MVFR/IFR CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON, YIELDING
SKC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AREA-WIDE.
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF RIVER VALLEY BR/MVFR VSBY AT KLUK PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS BY 04Z, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCST AT THIS JUNCTURE. LIGHT NW FLOW WILL QUICKLY GO
OUT OF THE SW PAST 03Z BEFORE RETURNING TO OUT OF THE NW BY 15Z.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY 10KTS OR LESS, EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BR/FG ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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