855
FXUS61 KILN 230554
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1254 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN WILL
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, IT WILL BE
BRISK AND COLD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
MID CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING, BUT IF THEY
DO THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES SOUTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND PASS OFF TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AS
IT HEADS EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, PASSING ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY AS FORCING
MOVES OUT.
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY AND THEN CLOSING OFF AS IT PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES, OVERALL THAT
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.
BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AFTER WHICH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO
SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACK TO WEST SOUTHWEST. FAIRLY EVEN
SPLIT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS WHETHER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR WHETHER THE AREA STAYS DRY THOUGH THEN. ONLY
VERY MODEST WARMING ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AFTER 10Z. THIS IS LOW
CONFIDENCE, BUT IF THEY DO OCCUR, THAT COULD RESULT IN IN IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS. JUST INCLUDED A SCATTERED DECK IN THE TAFS TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL. THIS AXIS WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
THEREAFTER, ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY.
WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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