632
FXUS61 KILN 240111
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
811 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY. A SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION STARTING MONDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING COLDER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
GIVEN THE LATEST HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE, HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IN AND NRN KY FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY. THE DFA WAS ISSUED WHERE THERE IS
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG, BUT IT MAY BE EXPANDED
AT SOME POINT DEPENDING ON OBSERVATION TRENDS.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE
30S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, HOWEVER RAIN
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE IN RAIN BY LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ONLY EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO PROGRESSES THROUGH. AFTER THE INITIAL PUSH OF
MOISTURE AND FORCING DURING THE MORNING, RAIN CHANCES GO DOWN BUT
STILL PERSIST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALLOWS FORECAST HIGHS TO REACH UPWARDS OF 60 ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER. CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED AND WARM TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING
THE DAYTIME WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ALLOW
MUCH COLDER AIR TO ADVECT IN ON GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DROPPING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON SO HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY. COLD AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING AS A LOW STRONG
WRAPS UP IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY MAY
NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS
FEEL A BIT COLDER. CHILLY, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH AT LEAST LEADS TO CALMER
WINDS.
THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WARMER, MOIST
AIR LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION WEST OF THE HIGH. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND BLOSSOM BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL BR/FG DEVELOPS IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
FASHION PAST 03Z, PARTICULARLY FOR SRN SITES OF KCVG/KLUK/KILN.
EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR VSBY TO IMPACT THESE SITES PAST 06Z BEFORE SLOWLY
IMPROVING BETWEEN 13Z-15Z. THE NRN FRINGE OF THE FOG IS STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME MORE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS AT
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK IN THE SEVERAL HOURS AROUND 12Z AS WELL. BR/FG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 15Z AREA-WIDE, WITH SOME CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME. THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL EVOLVE
TOWARD 00Z, WITH SHRA OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY 06Z TUESDAY.
LIGHT/VRB/CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z BEFORE GOING OUT OF THE
SE AT 6-8KTS THEREAFTER. EASTERLY FLOW AT 5KTS OR LESS WILL EVOLVE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ089>098.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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