968
FXUS61 KILN 241504
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1004 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CROSSES OVER THE REGION. BEHIND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE A RAPID AND DEEP INCREASE OF MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE MIDWEST WILL HELP PUSH THIS MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF IT, AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES OUR AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATED TO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE.
AFTER MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS BREAK UP, HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
THROUGH THIS FILTERED AND THICKENING SUNSHINE WILL REACH THE MID 50S
FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS DISCUSSED IN THE SYNOPSIS, MOISTURE AHEAD OF AND FORCING WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION, GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING SW-NE. A STEADY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY FOR
THE BULK OF THE CWA, AND STRONGER POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE
EXPECTED IN A SW-NE ORIENTATION.
THE UPPER S/W IS THE DOMINATING FACTOR IN THIS UPCOMING WEATHER AND
WHEN IT PASSES TO THE EAST, THE THREAT OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL END
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FROM W-E. LINGERING POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE GRADIENT
PASSES W-E, EXITING BY DAYBREAK. THIS GRADIENT WILL BE MORE NOTED AS
AN WESTWARD DIRECTIONAL SHIFT AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE SOUTHWEST,
CLOSER TO 40 IN THE HOCKING HILLS WHERE THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED LATER. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE
OF 60, COOLEST ALONG AND N OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
AS THE WINDSHIFT OCCURS, COOLER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM THE
WEST. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE MID-UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST/NORTHWEST, MID 40S IN THE EASTERN CWA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE LARGEST DISCREPANCY IN THE FORECAST OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY AS I
WOULD EXPECT A MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON THE ORDER OF 3-4
DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS, IF NOT A 1-2 DEGREE BUFFER WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SHOWS THE FALLING TEMPERATURES
BUT IS OVERLY-GENEROUS IN EXPECTING SOME TYPE OF A REBOUND. BY
NIGHTFALL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S. BASICALLY, WHEREVER WE
START THE DAY WILL BE THE DAYTIME HIGH.
COOL AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN INTO THE REGION UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S WILL BE THE END RESULT OF THIS
COLD AIR INTRUSION FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT. TEENS TO NEAR 20
DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.
THE HIGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE REGION,
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND "WARMER" TEMPERATURES STARTING
SATURDAY NIGHT. BY THIS TIME, MODELS HAVE LARGE DISCREPANCIES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY BUT THIS IS NOT A FOREGONE CONCLUSION. IF
ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN DOES HIT US, THE TIME FRAME WILL BE CERTAINLY
MORE NARROW THAN THE FORECAST IS INITIALLY INDICATING.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING
AND BE UNDER 8KT THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST, THICKEN, AND THEN LOWER IN THE LATE
DAY/EVENING TO AN ALTO STRATUS DECK.
PRECIP WILL SPREAD SW-NE INTO THE REGION, GENERALLY AFTER 06Z.
AIRMASS SATURATION LOOKS TO OCCUR IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME SO
CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM VFR TO IFR IN SHORT ORDER,
BEGINNING AT CVG/LUK 06-07Z AND THEN QUICKLY RAMPING UP FOR THE
REMAINING TERMINALS 08-09Z. A CHANGEOVER TO IFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED TO HAPPEN IN A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD NOT TOO LONG AFTER PRECIP
STARTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page