924
FXUS61 KILN 242256
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
556 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SYSTEM WILL START TO BRING RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 50S WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE GIVEN CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING AND THEN BECOME MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GOING INTO THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS A MORE COHESIVE LINE OF SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY WITH SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A DEEP LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH
COLDER, DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA ON WINDY WESTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH THE DAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS OCCUR
EARLY BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND 30S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD, BREEZY CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY. FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE HOLIDAY ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
A STIFF BREEZE WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL A BIT COLDER. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DROP WELL INTO THE 20S.
WINDS RELAX ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
BY SATURDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
HIGHER THETA E AIR STARTS RETURNING BEHIND THE HIGH. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE WARM, MOIST AIR IS LIFTED
NORTH. IF PRECIPITATION DOES END UP OCCURRING ON SATURDAY, WINTERY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ONSET. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THEN CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY. THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
TYPES ARE UP IN THE AIR. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK INVOLVES SOME WINTRY MIX STARTING ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION OVER TO A RAINY
SETUP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH 03Z. THEREAFTER,
STEADY RA WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN 03Z-06Z, BECOMING STEADIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD BY 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GO TO MVFR/IFR RAPIDLY BETWEEN
09Z-12Z, WITH MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE AROUND 12Z.
THE STEADY RA WILL BECOME MORE ISO/SCT BETWEEN 18Z-21Z FROM SW TO NE,
BUT A FEW SHRA WILL LINGER ABOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR VSBY MAY GO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN IFR THROUGH THIS TIME. LIGHT SE WINDS AT 5KTS OR LESS WILL
GRADUALLY GO OUT OF THE S BY 12Z BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 10-12KTS
BY 18Z OUT OF THE SSW.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KT OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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