867
FXUS61 KILN 250639
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
139 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION, ENDING BY LATE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH A FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A VIGOROUS
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WHAT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN WINTER MODE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S AND
LOWS NEAR 20 THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FORCING
PRODUCING THIS RAINFALL MOVES NE AND AWAY, RAIN WILL END IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT WILL
BE SPOTTY AND OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE IF THEY DO DEVELOP.
THE REAL WEATHER MAKER COMES IN LATE TONIGHT WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES. IT SHOULD BE ALONG THE IN/OH BORDER A LITTLE BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND CROSSING THE SCIOTO RIVER NOT TOO LONG AFTERWARD. WEST
WIND WILL RAMP UP IMMEDIATELY WITH ITS PASSING AT 15-20 MPH WITH
STRONGER GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 IN KY WILL BE THE
LAST WE SEE OF THOSE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
OCCURRING AT DAYBREAK WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW OF THE I-71
CORRIDOR AND LOW 40S TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES,
THAT WILL BE THE LAST WE SEE OF LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR
A WHILE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
BLUSTERY. COLD AIR OVERTURNING IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SPIT A FEW
FLAKES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF. WHAT WILL BE NOTED IS THE STEADY DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WEST WINDS. GUSTS NORTH OF A RICHMOND-WCH-
LANCASTER LINE WILL BE 40-45 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 25
MPH. THIS IS UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WON'T LIKELY FEEL
THAT WAY. ALONG THE OHIO AND SOUTH OF A BROOKVILLE IN-WILMINGTON-
CIRCLEVILLE-LOGAN LINE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS AT 15-20 MPH
GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
WHATEVER THE TEMPERATURE IS WHEN YOU START YOUR DAY WILL BE THE HIGH.
AT DAYBREAK, WE'RE EXPECTING NEAR 40 DEGREES IN IN, MID 40S ALONG AND
A LITTLE EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR, AND NEAR 50 FROM MAYSVILLE KY AND
IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY THROUGH COLUMBUS. BY NIGHTFALL, TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 35 +OR- 2 DEGREES. WIND WILL NOT BE NEARLY WHAT IT IS IN THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY BUT STILL BLUSTERY AND NOTABLE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
COLD, BREEZY CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST THROUGH THANKSGIVING. FORECAST
HIGHS FOR THE HOLIDAY ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. A CONTINUED
STIFF BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COLDER THAN THAT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROP TO NEAR 20 DEGREES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS RELAX ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.
WITH THESE RELAXED WINDS, TEMPERATURES RISE A LITTLE WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA,
LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 30.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
CROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL SUPPORT SNOW, THOUGH OVERNIGHT WILL SEE
THE SNOW MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN OVER KY, SPREADING NORTHWARD SO
THAT SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE ALL RAIN. THIS PRECIP EVENT
CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHTLY SIMILAR OUTCOME FROM DIFFERENT DRIVING
FORCES IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THIS PUTS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW IT EVOLVES THIS WEEKEND WRT TIMING, HOW MUCH PRECIP, AND THE
RAIN/SNOW PLACEMENT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MORE STEADY RAIN SHIELD WILL BE REACHING THE CINCY TRI-STATE
TOWARDS 09Z AND RAPIDLY CROSS TO COLUMBUS AREA BY 11Z. UNTIL IT DOES
WORK IN, VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME PASSING LIGHT RAIN WILL BE FOUND.
AFTERWARD, CIGS WILL GO DOWN AND DIRTY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING DROP IN
VSBY DUE TO THE CONSISTENT LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL,
GENERALLY IFR. SOME LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS
THE CUTOFF OF 400-500' BETWEEN THESE CATEGORIES IS NARROW AND
QUITE DIFFICULT TO TRY AND PINPOINT.
RAIN ENDS AND CONDITIONS BECOME VFR IN THE LATE DAY A LINGERING SPIT
OR LIGHT SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.
WINDS SHIFT W WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE VALID TAF
FCST, IMPACTING CVG CLOSER TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS RAMPING
UP 15-20KT GUSTING TO 30KT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS
GUSTS 30-35KT ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, 20-25KT THURSDAY, BOTH DAYS
STRONGEST AT DAY/CMH/LCK.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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