038
FXUS61 KILN 290954
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
454 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR
MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SNOW ON TUESDAY.
COLD WEATHER STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS LEADING TO DRY, COLD, AND CALM CONDITIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
LATER THIS MORNING, ATTENTION QUICKLY SHIFTS TO A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. AROUND
NOON, PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
MOISTURE AND FORCING OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE LOW.
INITIALLY, PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO START AS SNOW FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, BY THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, THERMAL PROFILES WARM AS THE THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES WHICH LIKELY CHANGES PRECIPITATION TYPES TOWARDS RAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70). THIS TRANSITION
OVER TO RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX GREATLY LOWERS FORECAST SNOW TOTALS
SOUTHEAST OF I-71. ADDITIONALLY, OVERALL QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
FAIRLY LOW WHICH FURTHER LIMITS SNOW TOTALS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTHWEST
OF I-71, ARE FORECAST TO SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
I-71 ARE FAR LESS LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTING TO MORE THAN
AN INCH. IN ACCORDANCE WITH FORECAST SNOW TOTALS, THE MOST TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY NORTHWEST OF I-71.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF QUICKLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A
COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE MOISTURE EXITS EAST
SUNDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
BRINGING COLD, DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FORM SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
IF THE DEVELOPING LOW SURFACE LOW AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND IT
REMAIN SOUTHEAST AS CURRENTLY FORECAST, OVERALL QPF AND SNOW TOTALS
STAY LIMITED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF SNOW IS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-71 THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES OF SNOW
TOTALS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES REMAINS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT, BUT DOES
FOCUS IN ON THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-71. SNOW CHANCES END
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY DEVELOP AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION, WHICH
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 18Z
(KDAY) AND 02Z (KCMH AND KLCK). KCVG, KLUK, AND KILN ARE LIKELY TO
CHANGE OVER FROM LIGHT SNOW TO RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN BY LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS LL PROFILE TEMPS WARM SUFFICIENTLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-71. EVENTUALLY, CIG REDUCTIONS DEVELOP AFTER 00Z, GOING
FROM VFR TO MVFR AREA-WIDE, WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR KDAY.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH 18Z. WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE
TO ABOUT 15KTS AND VEER TO THE SSE BY 00Z, GUSTING TO 20-25KTS
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>055-060>062-070-071.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR INZ050-058-059-066.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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