255
FXUS61 KILN 292329
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
629 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WITH COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. COLD WEATHER STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES THIS EVENING. BASED
ON LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS, MAIN CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR HAS TAKEN OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT IT WILL DO SO ONLY BRIEFLY. THE NEXT PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH INDIANAPOLIS AND LOUISVILLE, AND IT
WILL ENTER THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. UPON ONSET, LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE GREATER TRI-STATE AREA SHOULD EXPECT A WINTRY MIX, WITH
SLEET AND SNOW OCCURRING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. OVER TIME,
WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO A SLEET/RAIN MIX BEFORE
CHANGING ENTIRELY OVER TO RAIN. MAY NEED AN SPS SOUTH OF THE
ADVISORY AREA, DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES IN,
BUT AT THIS TIME, NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEADLINES.
FARTHER NORTH (THE ADVISORY AREA), PRECIPITATION RATES WILL SUPPORT
A FEW HOURS OF ADDITIONAL SNOW, WITH QUICK ACCUMULATIONS LEADING TO
SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN THE GREATEST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT A
QUICK INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE EVEN IN PLACES THAT DID NOT SEE SNOW
EARLIER TODAY. OVERALL THOUGH, NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXPECTATIONS
GOING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME, WITH KILN/KIND SHOWING EXPANDING
AREA OF RETURNS BUT STILL CLOUD CEILINGS OF 8-9 KFT. AS A RESULT WITH
THE DRY AIR TO OVERCOME, DID DELAY ONSET OF SNOW A BIT. WHERE THE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IS THE TIMING BETWEEN SATURATION AND PRECIP ONSET
AND THE PUSH OF WARM AIR ALREADY NOSING INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA NEAR
BMG. STILL EXPECTING SOME COOLING AT THE LEADING EDGE AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES, WITH THE OPTIMUM TIME PERIOD FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70 AND WEST OF I-75 IN THE 22Z-04Z TIMEFRAME.
AFTER ABOUT 02Z, THE WARM AIR PUSH BEGINS IN EARNEST, WITH AREAS
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-71 TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN TO ALL RAIN
BY 04-07Z.
LESS CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SE TIER OF THE
ADVISORY/GENERALLY RIGHT ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR, WITH AREAS TO THE
SOUTHEAST LIKELY ONLY COMING IN WITH TRACE TO 0.5 INCH TO ONLY THE
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF MORE THAN THAT BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO ALL
RAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH EARLY, THEN RISING TO MID 30S AFTER 06-07Z, WITH AND EVEN
GREATER INCREASE TO LOWER 40S AFTER INITIAL LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY, PRECIP COMES TO AN END, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOME SW THEN WEST WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20-25 MPH IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY/FALLING GENERALLY ALONG/NW
OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, WITH 40-45 FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE SE FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.
CLOUDS REMAIN CLOUDY, WITH WINDS RELAXING TO ABOUT 05-10 MPH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK. WHILE FORECAST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND
SEASONABLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY, A LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO CARVE ITS WAY INTO THE MIDWEST REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME LARGE DISCREPANCIES ON WHERE THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE POSITIONED, BUT THERE IS SOME GENERAL CONSENSUS
THAT IT WILL BE AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND RIDE UP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER, STRONG PVA AT 500MB DOES APPEAR TO DEVELOP
A POTENT WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY, WHICH MAY INDUCE THE NECESSARY
FORCING TO GENERATE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
OUR FA. SNOW RATIOS WILL TREND CLOSER TO 10:1 AROUND THE I-71
CORRIDOR, WITH LOWER VALUES TO THE SE AND HIGHER TO THE NW. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DO NOT APPEAR TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH SUSTAINED
NEGATIVE OMEGA IN THE DGZ, WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
REACHING THE 'HIGH END' SNOWFALL FORECASTS FOR THIS PARTICULAR
SNOWFALL EVENT. EVEN SO, THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT MAJORITY OF
OUR CWA WILL OBSERVE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, BUT CAMS
WILL HELP TO HONE IN ON WHERE THE GREATEST IMPACTS MIGHT BE EXPECTED.
MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LINGERING PERIODS OF FLURRIES CERTAINLY
PLAUSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. DRIER WEATHER BECOMES FAVORED AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY, BUT A NORTHERLY SYSTEM COULD USHER IN A BRIEF SHOT OF
SNOWFALL AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LIMITED (IF ANY)
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS.
PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
COMBINATION OF RAIN, SNOW AND PERHAPS EVEN A WINTRY-MIX.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST, AND IT WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EXPECT A WINTRY MIX AT CVG/LUK WITH PERIODS OF SNOW AT
DAY/ILN/CMH/LCK BEFORE A WINTRY MIX AND CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OCCURS.
AS THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS, THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS DELAYED A
FEW HOURS, BUT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF.
SE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
SOUTHERLY IN THE 07-10Z TIMEFRAME. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 11Z-13Z, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS. THESE ARE ADVERTISED AT ILN/DAY, WITH UPPER 20
KNOTS MENTIONED ELSEWHERE. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE TAF,
BECOMING LESS GUSTY TOWARD AND AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>055-060>062-070-071.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
066.
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR/MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...JDR/MCGINNIS
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