140
FXUS61 KILN 300530
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1230 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
MORNING BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WITH COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD WEATHER STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY SLOT SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW HAS WORKED
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT ANY
FURTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. ONLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PRE DAWN HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ARE THE
FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER SUNRISE AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HIGHS OCCUR
EARLY TODAY AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT THE
REST OF TODAY. WINDS COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 25MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
SURFACE LOW PULLS FARTHER NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY,
COLD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE NEXT BATCH OF WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT
AND LAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHEN A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PIVOTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE MODEST MOISTURE BEING IN
PLACE, FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH ONLY WEAK WAA AND DCVA.
ANY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FORCING AND BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LIKELY REMAINS WELL THE SOUTH AND EAST
ACCORDING TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND TYPICAL CLIMATOLOGY.
THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 8PM ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE
OVERSPREADING AREAS TO THE EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
LASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS TUESDAY MORNING. AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW APPEARS
MODERATELY LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATION. SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS
OF 3 INCHES DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG FORCING ENDS UP BEING (OUTSIDE
CHANCE A SURFACE LOW FORMS CLOSER THE THE AREA). THERE IS ALSO THE
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION SNEAKS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD LIMIT SNOW TOTALS. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
AT LEAST AS WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES AROUND THE THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS BY THE
WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TRIES TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING, SNOWFALL HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A
SHOWERY MIX OF RA AND SNRA ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN ABOVE FREEZING. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION
TYPE THROUGH 1200Z AT THE TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 1200Z BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION.
IN TERMS OF CEILINGS, CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY TO
DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITHIN A FEW HOURS AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BOTH MODELING AND OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THE
LOWER CEILINGS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH THE LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER FROPA LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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