186
FXUS61 KILN 301851
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
151 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT OFFERING
COLD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
MONDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE TO OFFER DRY WEATHER LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PROVIDING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEKEND
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS
EAST-SOUTHEAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO BY 12Z MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS
ATTEMPT TO BREAK UP OVERNIGHT WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS QUICKLY
SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK UP MONDAY MORNING WITH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THICKENING UP THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ESE FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING AND THOUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN RATHER LOW WITH SYSTEM REGARDING
SNOW AMOUNT DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. GFS, GEFS AND HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ECMWF BEING LESS AMPLIFIED AND THEREFORE LOWER
WITH SNOWFALL. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE ECMWF-AIFS HAS BEEN
HIGHER. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC ECMWF TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER
ESPECIALLY IN THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SNOW BEGINNING AROUND 8 PM MONDAY EVENING AND THE BEST SNOWFALL RATES
COMING IN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM TUESDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
THEN END TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLENDED APPROACH WITH
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST - SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE BELOW 10 TO 1 AND A MIX WITH
SOME SLEET OR EVEN FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE LOOKS TO BE
IMPACTED BY THIS SNOW EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO RANGE FROM
NEAR 30 NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY DROP TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S. CLOUDS TO HANG ON TUESDAY
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A QUICK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-70 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS PUSHES FROM
THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHERE H8
TEMPS OF -5 TO -15C ARE POSSIBLE, BRINGING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL WINTRY PRECIP WILL COME WITH
A PATTERN CHANGE TO SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS GULF MOISTURE BRINGS OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CLOUDS BLANKET THE TAF SITES IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS
ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FEET WITH AN OCCASIONAL BUMP UP
TO VFR. MVFR CLOUDS TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS BEGIN TO SPILL IN FROM THE WEST. THE MID CLOUDS THICKEN THRU
THE DAY WITH SNOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. SOME LIFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...AR
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