188
FXUS61 KILN 010502
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1202 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OFFERING COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.
SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH
PRESSURE OFFERS DRY WEATHER LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 30S UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. WINDS VEER FROM THE NORTH TO
THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT BETWEEN 8PM AND
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE LARGE AREA OF
SNOW QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT ENDING BETWEEN 6AM-
10AM TUESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST. SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE MODERATELY LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE 2-4 INCH RANGE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. AREAS CLOSER THE OHIO RIVER MAY END UP SEEING A PERIOD OF
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN SINCE SOME WARM AIR TRIES TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, SOME LOCATIONS COULD POSSIBLY EXCEED 4" IF
MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP (NO CLEAR SIGNAL ON LOCATION JUST YET).
REGARDLESS OF EXACT AMOUNTS, TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT AND DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO HIGHLIGHT TRAVEL
IMPACTS AND FORECAST SNOW TOTALS.
AFTER THE SNOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY MORNING, THE REST OF TUESDAY LOOKS
TO BE CLOUDY, COLD, AND DRY WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WARMER AIR TRIES TO WORK BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WINTER WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED TO START THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH
SOME CLEARING IS STARTING TO APPEAR ON SATELLITE. THE GENERAL TREND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE TOWARD SCATTERING CEILINGS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. THE CHALLENGE IS TIMING AND LOCATION PROGRESSION OF
THE CLEARING. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY THE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME SITES MAY SCATTER MUCH SOONER. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 0000Z TUESDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING AS SNOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.
EVENTUALLY IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH SN (APPROX 0400Z-1200Z TUESDAY).
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TO THE EAST TODAY AND REMAIN OUT OF THE
EAST INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. SOME LIFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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