138
FXUS61 KILN 011828
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
ENDING TUESDAY MORNING, AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OFFERS DRY WEATHER LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
PROVIDING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WIDESPREAD SNOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT BETWEEN 8PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE BEST LIFT AND
SNOWFALL RATE LOOK TO OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 6 AM. THE LARGE AREA OF
SNOW QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT ENDING BETWEEN BY 10 AM TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO PLACE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS
CLOSER THE OHIO RIVER MAY END UP SEEING A PERIOD OF FREEZING OR
SLEET AS SOME WARMER AIR MIXES IN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN
THIS AREA LOOKS TO FALL IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, MORE FAVORABLE (HIGHER)
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS BETWEEN 12 AND 14 TO 1 AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
MESOSCALE BANDS MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCATIONS OBSERVING SNOWFALL
EXCEEDING 4 INCHES. HAVE AN AREA OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES. THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND EXACTLY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDS SETUP.
THIS WILL AFFECT THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. TRAVEL IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO
HIGHLIGHT TRAVEL IMPACTS AND FORECAST SNOW TOTALS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 20S
SOUTHEAST. EASTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO SHIFT QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY
WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE SNOW MOVES
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, EXPECT CLOUDY, COLD, AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM NEAR 30
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.
CLOUDS HOLD MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. COLD LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS REMAINS INTACT FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, BUT A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR CWA. CURRENTLY, PRIMARILY EXPECTING
ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH FROM THIS WEAKER SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
HIGHER SLRS COULD PUSH ACCUMULATIONS TO 0.5" TO 1.0" IN SOME OF OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. CAMS WILL OFFER SOME BETTER INSIGHT ON SNOWFALL
TOTALS.
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT ANOTHER
SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIP
THIS WEEKEND IS NOW FOCUSED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH THERMAL
PROFILES FAVORING SNOW AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE. HOWEVER, A WINTRY-MIX
IS STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN INTACT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING. LOWER CONFIDENCE AT
KCMH/KLCK FOR MVFR CIGS, SO JUST KEPT A TEMPO GROUP THERE.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE SYSTEM MOVING IN TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR ALL TERMINALS. WHILE SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN TIMING IN THE TAFS, WANTED
TO FOCUS ON WHEN THE PRIMARY CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS WILL OCCUR. A
SHARP REDUCTION IN VSBYS LIKELY NEAR THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL, WITH
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE IFR RAPIDLY BUILDS IN. IFR
CIGS REMAIN HIGH CONFIDENCE, BUT SOME LIFR CIGS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
(LOWER POTENTIAL FOR THIS AT KCVG/KLCK). HAVE PRIMARILY A TEMPO
MENTION FOR LIFR CIGS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES (KDAY ONLY
EXCEPTION). PROLONGED IFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY, WITH IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR LIKELY DURING THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, SHIFTING FROM THE
SE TO THE WNW BY TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...LC
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