568
FXUS61 KILN 020011
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
711 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
ENDING TUESDAY MORNING, AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE OFFERS DRY WEATHER LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
PROVIDING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WIDESPREAD SNOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT BETWEEN 8PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE BEST LIFT AND
SNOWFALL RATE LOOK TO OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 6 AM. THE LARGE AREA OF
SNOW QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT ENDING BETWEEN BY 10 AM TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO PLACE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS
CLOSER THE OHIO RIVER MAY END UP SEEING A PERIOD OF FREEZING OR
SLEET AS SOME WARMER AIR MIXES IN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN
THIS AREA LOOKS TO FALL IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, MORE FAVORABLE (HIGHER)
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS BETWEEN 12 AND 14 TO 1 AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
MESOSCALE BANDS MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCATIONS OBSERVING SNOWFALL
EXCEEDING 4 INCHES. HAVE AN AREA OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES. THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND EXACTLY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDS SETUP.
THIS WILL AFFECT THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. TRAVEL IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO
HIGHLIGHT TRAVEL IMPACTS AND FORECAST SNOW TOTALS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 20S
SOUTHEAST. EASTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO SHIFT QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY
WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE SNOW MOVES
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, EXPECT CLOUDY, COLD, AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM NEAR 30
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.
CLOUDS HOLD MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. COLD LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS REMAINS INTACT FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, BUT A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR CWA. CURRENTLY, PRIMARILY EXPECTING
ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH FROM THIS WEAKER SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
HIGHER SLRS COULD PUSH ACCUMULATIONS TO 0.5" TO 1.0" IN SOME OF OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. CAMS WILL OFFER SOME BETTER INSIGHT ON SNOWFALL
TOTALS.
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT ANOTHER
SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP FOR THIS WEEKEND. BEST SIGNAL FOR PRECIP
THIS WEEKEND IS NOW FOCUSED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH THERMAL
PROFILES FAVORING SNOW AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE. HOWEVER, A WINTRY-MIX
IS STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ALL SITES ARE VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION
THIS EVENING.
ANTICIPATING AN ABRUPT DROP IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SNOW ONSET,
DROPPING INITIALLY TO MVFR THEN IFR, WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
(PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR (KDAY KCMH KLCK)) BY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT LIFR CONDITIONS AS A
TEMPO, BUT THESE MIGHT NEED TO END UP AS PREVAILING DEPENDING ON HOW
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
SNOW TAPERS OFF TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 12Z, LEAVING IFR/LIFR CIGS
BEHIND WITH MVFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH APPEARS THAT AT LEAST A MVFR DECK
WILL HANG OUT THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS ARE LIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS EVENING, BECOMING
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY
MORNING, INCREASING TO AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA
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