671
FXUS61 KILN 022314
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
614 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS NOSING UP INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS, BUT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED IN THE LOW
LEVELS, EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW TO
SET UP ALONG WITH A DECREASING CLOUD TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
MID LEVEL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF A LARGER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL HELP PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THIS, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AN AXIS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH THE SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A
HALF INCH OR LESS, WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES, SOME SLICK SPOTS
WILL BE LIKELY ON AREA ROADWAYS. THIS WILL IMPACT THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION IN THE HWO. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF LATER THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER ALL THAT MUCH THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO
THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MANY
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW ON THE GROUND, WILL UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES, WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MID TEENS IN THE SOUTH.
SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY. OUR AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGE OF ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS, SO FOR NOW WILL
JUST HAVE SOME LOWER END POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK MARGINAL FOR SNOW SO ANY PCPN
WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHEAST.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BETWEEN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FOR NOW,
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SOME LOWER END CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S, SO ANY PCPN WOULD LIKELY BE SNOW WITH PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS BELOW
2KFT WILL BE MOST PROMINENT. BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW
BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z WHEN CEILINGS MAY DROP TO IFR. THAT HAS THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS. THE CEILINGS
SHOULD FINALLY BREAK TOWARDS 18Z. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE
AND THEN BACK. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AT 10 KT OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...
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