917
FXUS61 KILN 030556
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1256 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL
LIMIT HOW COLD IT GETS THROUGH DAYBREAK JUST A BIT. HOWEVER, TEMPS
SHOULD STILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 20S, WITH SOME UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF EC IN AND WC OH.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE DAYTIME, THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT, WITH SOME LATE DAY SUNSHINE
EXPECTED FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS BEING SAID, SOME MID CLOUDS WILL
ALREADY BE OVERSPREADING FROM THE W LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING, SO THE WINDOW FOR SUNSHINE MAY ONLY BE A FEW HOURS FOR SOME
SPOTS. NEVERTHELESS, HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S, WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN N KY AS SW SFC FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE TN VLY WILL DRIFT E THROUGH THE
DAYTIME, ALLOWING FOR SW LL FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W/NW INTO
THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA PAST
MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL ENERGY WITHIN THE
BASE OF A LARGER TROUGH OVER CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY/DEPTH WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED, THERE SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE WITHIN THE DGZ TO ALLOW FOR A BAND OF LIGHT
SN TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE SE THROUGH THE ILN FA BETWEEN ABOUT
04Z-14Z. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SLRS WILL BE ON THE ORDER
OF 12-15:1, SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH LIQUID-EQUIVALENT TO GENERATE AN
INCH OF SNOW.
THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME CONCERN THAT THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY CAUSE
ISSUES FOR THE THURSDAY AM COMMUTE AS THE COMBO OF SUBFREEZING
GROUND TEMPS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL SLRS, AND TIMING COULD
CREATE PROBLEMS FOR UNTREATED SURFACES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
GROUND IS GOING TO BE VERY RECEPTIVE TO ACCUMULATION AND THE TIMING
OF THIS LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE PROGRESSING THROUGH AT LEAST THE CINCY
METRO AREA AND N KY DURING THE AM COMMUTE (SNOW MAY END SEVERAL
HOURS QUICKER FURTHER N ACROSS DAYTON AND COLUMBUS METRO AREAS).
THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS ALWAYS PRESENT A MESSAGING CHALLENGE
BECAUSE ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, THE
IMPACTS OF DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY VERY WELL WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. AT THIS JUNCTURE, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND
VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING WHERE THE STEADIEST BAND OF
SNOW IS GOING TO SET UP, SO DID NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO HOIST ANY
ADVISORY QUITE YET. BUT WILL MAINTAIN MENTION IN THE HWO AND ISSUE A
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWY THURSDAY AM COMMUTE AND
RAISE AWARENESS OF POSSIBLE SLICK CONDITIONS.
CAA WILL EVOLVE IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN EC IN
AND WC OH DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. HOWEVER, TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY
STAY AROUND 30 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR PARTS
OF N KY AND THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER A FRESH
SNOWPACK SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO SINGLE DIGITS FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. TEENS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
RIVER.
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW END
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF WEEKEND WITH
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE BUT THERE IS STILL NO CLEAR
SIGNAL FOR THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A BLANKET OF BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR CIGS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
(LOWEST CHANCE FOR KCMH/KLCK) IN THE SEVERAL HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK.
THE CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT QUICKLY AFTER 18Z, EVEN AS SOME MID CLOUDS BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, IMPACTING THE TERMINALS TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A WIND SHIFT, AS WELL AS A BAND OF LIGHT
SN. THIS BAND OF SN MAY BE MOST DEVELOPED FOR WRN SITES OF
KCVG/KLUK/KDAY/KILN AFTER 06Z, BUT CERTAINLY SOME BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5KTS WILL GO MORE OUT OF THE SW BY
DAYBREAK, INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS BY 18Z. SW WINDS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE FROPA, WHICH SHOULD OCCUR PROGRESSIVELY FROM ABOUT 06Z AT
KDAY TO AROUND 12Z AT KCVG.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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