333
FXUS61 KILN 040209
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
909 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM SNOWFALL FORECAST WITH THE WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD WEST-CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING, WITH THIS
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AS IT ENTERS THE AREA. LATER IN
THE OVERNIGHT, A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF BANDED SNOW WILL FORM,
STRETCHING ALONG AND BETWEEN THE I-70 AND I-71 CORRIDORS, DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN AND DRY
AIR (AS NOTED IN THE 00Z ILN SOUNDING) CONTINUE TO BE LIMITING
FACTORS WITH THIS EVENT. HOWEVER, A LOCALIZED AREA WITHIN THE LOCAL
AREA MAY SEE ENOUGH FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS (ASCENT IN THE DGZ,
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S, AND NO SOLAR INSOLATION) ALIGN
TO SQUEEZE OUT HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW STILL TO TARGET ANY PARTICULAR REGION
WITH AN ADVISORY, BUT THE I-71 CORRIDOR FROM CINCINNATI TO WILMINGTON
AND SOUTH OF COLUMBUS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS. THAT
IS WHERE THE CURRENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE-HALF INCH ARE, AND IT'S
LIKELY WHERE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH. THE
OBSERVED RATE OF SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY DETERMINE IF AN ADVISORY IS
NECESSARY FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. WILL ALLOW THE SPS TO
REMAIN WITH AN ADVISORY BASED ON LOCAL CONDITIONS IF THEY WORSEN
OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (1257PM)...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING IN TODAY AND BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGES, IT
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL REMAIN CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND BY THEN, CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM/COLD FRONT
WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA. AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY. MOST OF
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL POTIONS OF
OUR AREA AND THEN WORKING INTO OUR SOUTHERN PORTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE THIS WILL BE A LOWER QPF EVENT. HOWEVER,
WITH SLRS IN THE 12:1 TO POSSIBLY 15:1 RANGE, A FEW TENTHS OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH ROAD TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND AIR
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE NIGHT, EXPECT TO SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
MORNING COMMUTE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
COOL WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO
THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CLEARING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR
NORTH SO WILL RANGE LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNTIL A WEAK L/W TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FOUND IN IT'S WAKE FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. ON TUESDAY, S/W ENERGY WILL DEVELOP IN THE GTLKS AND TRACK
TOWARD NRN NY BY EVENING. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY
NORTH OF THE CWA AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INDICATION OF
HEIGHT FALLS IN OUR AREA, SO DRY IS THE WAY TO GO FOR THIS FORECAST.
ONE EXCEPTION TO THE DRY FORECAST COULD BE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS
THE L/W AXIS PASSES, BUT THIS THREAT LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH AND DOES NOT HAVE BUY-IN FROM A MAJORITY OF MODELS ATTM.
LOOKING AT SURFACE AND SENSIBLE WX, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
START THE FORECAST. THIS SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SAT EVENING
WHEN IT TURNS WESTERLY AND THEN BECOMES A BIT MORE VARIABLE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A NUMBER OF WEAK COMPONENTS - A HIGH
STRENGTHENING IN THE GREAT PLAINS EXTENDING A RIDGE INTO THE OHVLY,
A SURFACE LOW IN CANADA PULLING NE AND WEAKENING A COLD FRONT THAT
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE OVER NW OH. IT'S NOT UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN THE
HIGH MOVES INTO MN/WI AND EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE EASTWARD THAT THE
NORTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN. THE SURFACE HIGH THEN EVOLVES TO HAVE A SW-
NE ORIENTATION OVER THE OHVLY LATE MON, WITH THE AXIS MOVING EAST
MON NIGHT AND RETURN TO SLY FLOW TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MONDAY WHEN READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S NW TO NEAR
FREEZING IN THE SE. SLY FLOW TUES SHOULD HELP RAISE MAX TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FRI/SAT NIGHTS, TEENS TO
NEAR 20 SUN NIGHT, MID TEENS MON NIGHT AND WARM TO THE MID-UPPER 20S
TUE NIGHT.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR/IFR CIGS HAVE ERODED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA, PRIMARILY AT DAY,
CMH, LCK, AND MOST RECENTLY ACROSS ILN. THOUGH, WITH THE SETTING SUN,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR OVER
THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. LOCAL CIG OBSERVATIONS MAY BE VARIABLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS RETURN.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP WITH MVFR
TO IFR VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
THURSDAY MORNING BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY MORNING, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL/MCGINNIS
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