220
FXUS61 KILN 041140
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
640 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE FA THIS MORNING. SOME
LIGHT ECHOES ARE APPEARING ON RADAR AS SNOWFALL IS BEING GENERATED
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
VERY LIMITED OVERLAP OF NEGATIVE OMEGA AND SATURATION IN THE DGZ.
WHILE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE QUITE HIGH (OVER 13:1 FOR THE ENTIRE CWA),
COVERAGE IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE LACK OF
FORCING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.5" OR LESS
WHERE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-70 AND NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER.
ANY LINGERING SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MIDWEST
REGION TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSOLVE IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FIRST AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN, ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE QUITE
CHILLY HOWEVER, WITH MAJORITY OF THE FA OBSERVING HIGHS BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
FRIGID OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE STORY FOR TONIGHT. THE NBM
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MIN TEMPS ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH, ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOWPACK, TEMPS WILL LIKELY DIP EVEN
FURTHER -- ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
LIMITED OVERNIGHT. TRENDED LOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER BASED ON THESE
FACTORS, WHICH NOW PUTS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR ALL COUNTIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL (AT THE VERY
LEAST) USHER SOME CLOUDS IN ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS A
LOW (BUT NON-ZERO) CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW COULD SNEAK INTO OUR
NORTHERN KY COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A RELATIVELY QUIET FEW DAYS ARE IN STORE AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS (SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED) ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN THE LONGER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, EACH BRINGING LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW
END POPS TO THE FORECAST.
THE FIRST OF THESE ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, INTRODUCING
THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW OR RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE REGION, THOUGH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AND RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED, SO QPF
ISN'T OVERLY ROBUST. THE MORE IMPACTFUL COMPONENT OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE THE REINFORCING BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE ON ITS
HEELS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. IN FACT, BLENDED GUIDANCE
DROPS OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE TEENS/
SINGLE DIGITS AND KEEPS MONDAY'S DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S.
THE NEXT WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM, PASSING ALONG THE GREAT LAKES. THIS REINTRODUCES LOW
END POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST, THOUGH (AGAIN) THIS IS A RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO HINT AT A
LARGER SYSTEM MID-WEEK, THOUGH DETAILS ARE SCARCE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SNOWFALL HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. COVERAGE IS LIMITED ENOUGH NOW TO NOT WARRANT A MENTION THE
TAFS.
CIG IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOONER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NOW EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS TO IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR BY LATE MORNING, WITH KCVG/KLUK LIKELY BEING PUSHED INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR
CIGS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ENSUES.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10
KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...
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