005
FXUS61 KILN 051120
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
620 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY, WITH
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLES SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IS USHERING IN A PLUME
OF CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. STRATUS
DECK CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING INTO SOUTHEAST IN AND
WEST-CENTRAL OH, WHICH IS KEEPING TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING FURTHER. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY. IN THE INTERIM, EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING IS
ENSUING IN LOCATIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES, PARTICULARLY ALONG/NORTH OF
I-70. TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OCCURRING IN THIS AREA, BUT THERE
MAY BE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPS PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO EXPAND.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
LOW TEMPERATURES WON'T BE QUITE AS FRIGID TONIGHT GIVEN THE AMPLE
CLOUD COVERAGE. HOWEVER, SOME UPPER TEENS MAY STILL BE OBSERVED IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OH ALONG WITH OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER SPOTS.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EASTWARD OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. WHILE WE AREN'T ANTICIPATING
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FLURRIES. ADDITIONALLY, SOME CAMS ARE TRYING
TO INITIALIZE SOME LIGHT (NON-ACCUMULATING) PRECIP FOR SATURDAY.
MAINTAINED A MENTION OF FLURRIES GIVEN THIS SIGNAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED, A CLOSED LOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE
HUDSON BAY, RESULTING IN RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. TO OUR WEST, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE OPENING UP
WITHIN THE LARGER FLOW, BRINGING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE REGION.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE THE DECIDING FACTOR ON WHETHER
P-TYPE IS PRIMARILY LIQUID OR FROZEN, GIVEN THAT THE DEEP LAYER
COLUMN IS CONSISTENTLY BELOW FREEZING. THE U.S. 35 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO
BE APPROXIMATELY WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE MAY SET UP, IF NOT A TAD
FARTHER SOUTH. RIGHT NOW, FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE TRI-STATE
INDICATE A WELL ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY, WHILE AREAS LIKE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS ARE RIGHT ON THE CUSP
OF FREEZING, SO P-TYPE REMAINS A BIT MORE AMBIGUOUS IN THESE AREAS.
NORTH, SOUNDINGS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW FREEZING, INDICATING AN ALL
SNOW SOLUTION.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST, A ROBUST 1032 SURFACE HIGH
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WE GET ANOTHER REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. SUNDAY NIGHT'S OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND TEENS ELSEWHERE, WHILE MONDAY'S
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY REACH THE 20S. SIMILARLY, MONDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS
ONCE AGAIN FALL TO THE TEENS. FORTUNATELY, THANKS TO THE SURFACE
HIGH, WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, SO ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL
FACTOR SHOULDN'T BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE. EVEN SO, QUITE A COLD
START TO THE WEEK.
LOOKING BEYOND MONDAY, THINGS GET A BIT MORE MUDDLED. ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT A LARGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION MID-WEEK, THOUGH EXACT PROGRESSION IS UNCLEAR AT
THIS TIME. MOISTURE CONTENT BEGINS TO CREEP UP ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH A PLUME OF PWATS SURGING NORTH MONDAY LATE NIGHT. AS SUCH, LOW
END POPS ARE INTRODUCED AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-70
BEFORE THE BLEND BRINGS IN MUCH HIGHER POPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.
ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES, WE'LL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION, DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR CIGS NOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS KCMH/KLCK GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 925MB. ALL TERMINALS WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A RETURN TO
VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS SIGNAL IS A BIT MURKIER BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE. HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS SLIGHTLY LONGER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR TONIGHT, BUT THE EXTENDED KCVG TAF
DOES SHOW THE NEXT MVFR CIG REDUCTION SATURDAY MORNING BUILDING IN
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...
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