048
FXUS61 KILN 060625
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
125 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR
FA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, CLOUDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. WHILE WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATING PRECIP TODAY, THERE WILL BE AN H5
SHORTWAVE THAT EJECTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME. WITH
THIS SUBTLE FORCING, CAMS DO TRY TO INITIALIZE SOME LIGHT PRECIP.
BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORM
OF SNOW FLURRIES, PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO
FRIDAY, BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AS HIGHS TOP OFF
IN THE 30S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
FORECAST ON TRACK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.
THICKER CLOUD COVERAGE WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING OVERNIGHT,
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30.
MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR FOR SUNDAY IS THE PROGRESSION OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM. LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON OVERALL QPF
FOOTPRINT IN OUR CWA, ALONG WITH SUGGESTING A MORE NORTHERLY SURGE IN
WARMER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. IN TURN, THIS HAS LOWERED THE THREAT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE PORTION OF OUR CWA. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IS NOW CONFINED TO COUNTIES NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR, PRIMARILY IN WEST-CENTRAL OH. LATEST TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT SNOW ACCUMS WOULD NOW BE HALF AN INCH OR LESS FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES, WITH ~1 INCH BEING THE HIGH END (WHICH WOULD
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO MERCER, AUGLAIZE AND HARDIN COUNTIES).
ADDITIONALLY, WITH SNOWFALL OCCURRING PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS, PAVEMENT TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT TRAVEL IMPACTS.
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE PROBABILISTIC WSSI, WHICH SHOWS 0%
PROBABILITIES OF OBSERVING MINOR WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THUS, WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY HWO MENTION FOR SNOW GIVEN
THE LACK OF IMPACTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED, BEING REPLACED BY A ROBUST 1032 SURFACE HIGH. THIS
GIVES US A REINFORCING SHOW OF COLD AIR AND SUNDAY'S OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND TEENS
ELSEWHERE, WHILE MONDAY'S DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY REACH MID 20S TO LOW
30S. SIMILARLY, MONDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN FALL TO THE TEENS.
FORTUNATELY, THANKS TO THE SURFACE HIGH, WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT, SO ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL FACTOR SHOULDN'T BE TOO MUCH OF AN
ISSUE. EVEN SO, QUITE A COLD START TO THE WEEK.
LOOKING BEYOND MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH IS SHUNTED EASTWARD AS TWO
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS RACE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
FIRST OF THE TWO MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPING THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF
OUR AREA. THIS REALLY LIMITS THE OVERALL QPF FROM THIS FIRST WAVE,
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PASSING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR VERY
FAR NORTH (MERCER, AUGLAIZE, HARDIN AND NORTH). THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE, RESULTING IN
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-70.
THE SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT/ WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT
MORE ROBUST, AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT DEEPENING AS IT DIGS INTO THE
LARGER FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A PRETTY POTENT LLJ AND TIGHTENED
GRADIENT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THIS WAVE, RESULTING
IN GUSTY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. RECENT TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE FARTHER NORTH, PLACING THE ILN CWA MORE
COMFORTABLY IN THE WARM SECTOR, RESULTING IN A MORE RAIN SOLUTION
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON
THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THURSDAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM
AND END OF WEEK TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN FALL WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER, BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING, AN MVFR DECK WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CIGS MAY DROP TO <2000 FT BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
AT OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS.
WHILE THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME FROM THE SW,
BUT WILL GO NEARLY CALM THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...
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