891
FXUS61 KILN 062354
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
654 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW, MAINLY DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN HANGING IN ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AT LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, IN DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME EROSION FROM THE
SOUTH AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT. THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN BACK UP AHEAD OF THIS
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WITH AN INITIAL LACK OF DEEPER
MOISTURE, SUPPOSE IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO AMOUNT
TO TOO MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A REMNANT COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR NORTH, BUT AS THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP,
THIS SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO MAINLY SNOW THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS AND PRIMARILY
TO THE NORTH OF I-70. PCPN CHANCES WILL THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTH. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ON MONDAY MORNING, A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. HEIGHTS WILL BE
RISING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AS THE SURFACE HIGH EVENTUALLY EXPANDS
AND CONNECTS TO ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S, DESPITE AN EXPECTED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
AN ACTIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, THOUGH THE
IMPACTS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THAT THE
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL MOVE
ACROSS MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT, AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO JUST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES (WITH NO EXPECTED IMPACTS) IN THE FAR
NORTHERN ILN COUNTIES. THE MORE NOTABLE IMPACT TO THE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY WILL BE A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME 20-25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
THE NEXT WAVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
TRACK EAST ACROSS MICHIGAN, BUT IT WILL BE MORE WELL-DEFINED, WITH
STRONGER FORCING AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 40S FOR MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS WELL, PERHAPS
EVEN A LITTLE MORE SO THAN ON TUESDAY. EVENTUALLY, BY LATE IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY, THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A TRANSITION TO SNOW. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BUT EARLY
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.
BEYOND THURSDAY, CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
IN THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES QUITE A BIT LOWER. WITH
COOLER AIR IN PLACE, THERE MAY BE SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW AT SOME
POINT IN THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS, HOWEVER,
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN COLD CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING - MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 BEFORE TRANSITIONING
OVER TO AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN NORTHERLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR
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