009
FXUS61 KILN 081144
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT SNOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY, BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PRIMARILY LOCATIONS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH PART OF THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW. EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND IN MOST PLACES LESS THAN A HALF INCH.
CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE,
HOWEVER GIVEN FALLING TEMPERATURES THERE IS A CONCERN THAT WHERE
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLICK
SPOTS. DUE TO THIS AND WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AS
WELL, DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JUST 4
COUNTIES FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS. HAVE A TIER OF SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT NORTH OF THAT. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO STAY DRY OR JUST HAVE SOME FLURRIES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE
HIGHS BELOW FREEZING TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN DURING THE DAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. WIND GUSTS FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY WILL ALSO TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO WAA. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS BY MID-WEEK.
A POTENT VORT LOBE WILL EJECT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING TO OUR REGION. ONE THING THAT IS
CERTAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY, WITH
SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 40+ MPH GUSTS
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA. NBM PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO IN THE 'LIKELY'
CATEGORY FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH, ESP IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
STARTED TO BLEND IN NBM 90TH PERCENTILE WIND GUSTS TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL.
IN TERMS OF PCPN, BEST QPF AXIS WILL BE NEAR/NORTH OF I-70, WITH THE
HEAVIEST PCPN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST ALL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
EVENTUALLY, COLDER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION AND RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR ANY LINGERING PCPN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AT LEAST SOME SNOW ACCUMS FOR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA, WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AGAIN NEAR/NORTH OF I-70. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, SLR'S WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 14 OR 15:1, WHICH WILL AID IN POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ENSUES ON THURSDAY AS THIS H5 TROUGH
REMAINS INTACT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT THROUGH HE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS QUITE A
LARGE DISCREPANCY IN SNOW TOTALS AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM(S), BUT AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE DO WANT TO
HIGHLIGHT THAT WITH ANY SNOW POTENTIAL, THE HIGH SLR'S WILL RESULT
IN EFFICIENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
ONCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL ENDS LATE WEEK, THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES THAT ARE USHERED IN FROM THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS. WITH THE WIND CHILL FACTOR, THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS LOCATIONS
THAT OBSERVE SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
PERIODS. AND FOR SATURDAY, DAYTIME WIND CHILLS MAY EVEN REMAIN IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF OUR CWA.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE AROUND AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AT KCVG AND
KLUK, HOWEVER EXPECT IT TO BE SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE SNOW
TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS AT KCVG, KLUK, AND
KILN WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS AT
TIMES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SNOW ON THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ098>100.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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