750
FXUS61 KILN 082337
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
637 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
SNOW IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SOUTH SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SUPPOSE IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS
WITH THIS, BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN SHOULD
REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT,
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTH.
A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT IN GENERAL, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WITH A STRENGTHENING
40-60 KNOT 850 MB JET SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, RAIN WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY LATE IN THE NIGHT.
IN THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH
AND MAY EVEN SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AXIS OF S/W ENERGY IN OHIO VALLEY IS PUSHING EAST WITHIN L/W
TROUGH IN EASTERN 1/3 OF U.S. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN
DURING THE MORNING AS A STRONG CUTOFF SFC LOW MOVES EWD IN THE SRN
GTLKS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION W-E DURING THE AFTERNOON,
REACHING THE PA/OH BORDER IN THE EVENING. FALLING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL CHANGE ANY PRECIP TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING IN THE EVENING.
WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL ALREADY HAVE BEEN WRUNG OUT, LINGERING
SHOWERS WITH LAKE ENHANCED BANDING WILL BE FOUND WITH THE INFLUX OF
COLD AIR OVERTURNING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
THIS OVERTURNING WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL WILL HAVE ENDED WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH
LIGHT/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM NW-SE AND BATTLES AN INTRUSION OF LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE SW (LIKELY A LEADING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY). THIS LOOKS TO SHOW
LESS CHANCE IN MY NE CWA AND MORE OF A CHANCE IN THE SW. POPS AREN'T
OVERLY HIGH BUT IT WAS MY THOUGHT THAT THIS GRADIENT SHOULD BE MORE
PRONOUNCED. AFTER THIS TIME, MODELS SHOW LARGER DIFFERENCES IN
SENSIBLE WX/SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY FRI LOOK
OVERDONE, AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR SAT. ONE AREA OF CONCURRENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS IS ON SUNDAY, WHERE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
DAYBREAK SUN TO DAYBREAK MON.
MILD TEMPS 40-45 ARE FOUND ON WED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN FALL TO
THE UPPER 20S/MID 30S FOR THU AND FRI. SAT AND SUN LOOK A BIT ON THE
UGLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURE
REBOUND ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC BUT NOT UNREASONABLE
WITH A 10-12 DEG BUMP FROM SUN.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S WED NIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW 20S/UPPER TEENS
NORTH OF THE OHIO ON THURS NIGHT. TEENS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THEN FALL TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS FOR SAT/SUN NIGHTS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT TIMES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN UP THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME GUST OF 25 TO
30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 50-60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET WILL OFFER A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE IN THE DAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...AR
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