115
FXUS61 KILN 092357
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
657 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING PRIMARILY RAIN TO START TONIGHT AND THEN
SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM COMING IN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE EXITED MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA, LEAVING
BEHIND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. REGULAR WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING THIS EVENING.
THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DON'T LAST FOR LONG AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. LATER TONIGHT, WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP IN RESPONSE TO
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE THE SURFACE, AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA, WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH MAY
BECOME MORE COMMON, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. AN SPS
WILL BE USED TO COVER THIS THREAT DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY
LEVELS WINDS BEING REALIZED.
ADDITIONALLY, AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SUPPORT ALL LIQUID.
HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY, DYNAMIC COOLING
FROM ALOFT TO CLOSER TO THE GROUND MAY SUPPORT SNOW MIXING IN WITH
RAIN. THIS WILL BE MOST COMMON IN ELEVATED AREAS (BELLEFONTAINE RIDGE
DOWN THROUGH WILMINGTON) WHERE COLD AIR WILL BE REALIZED MUCH CLOSER
TO THE GROUND. ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIMIT ANY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO ELEVATED/GRASSY AREAS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MESSY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO START THE DAY WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY CONSISTING OF RAIN WITH SNOW MIXING IN.
DURING THE MID-MORNING, A DRY SLOT IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN
FROM WEST TO EAST, SWITCHING PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM STRATIFORM TO
MORE SHOWERY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ALL RAIN DURING THE MID-
MORNING BEFORE COLDER AIR HELPS TO BEGIN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE TRANSITION, BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING, LIKELY DECREASING IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
WIND GUSTS REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CURRENTLY LOOK INFREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. THESE HIGHER WIND GUSTS BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, BUT THEY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 20S THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS &
FLURRIES LIKELY CONTINUE WITH THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE PROFILES ON FORECASTING SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ, THEREFORE POPS WERE INCREASED FROM THE
NBM. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AREA WIDE,
AND HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR.
SLICK SPOTS ARE LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SURFACE HIGH TO THE SOUTH BRIEFLY NOSES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. COLD AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVES BY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A
WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES TROUGH THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF
PRECIPITATION VARIES BETWEEN MODEL RUNS FROM THE LATE OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY TO THE MORNING COMMUTE ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION THEN LASTS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW IS THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION
TYPE IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHILE MIXED
PRECIPITATION HAS HIGHER PROBABILITIES NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RIVER.
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF AT LEAST AN INCH FRIDAY MORNING IS LIKELY
ALTHOUGH EXACT AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THE FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
THE FRIDAY SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST BY LATE FRIDAY LEAVING
COLD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR. SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON THE EDGE OF THE
COLD AIR WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR OVER AN INCH BEING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH SNOW VALUES
WITH VERY LOW QPF. TRAVEL IMPACTS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD LINGER GIVEN
THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. FORECAST LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS
POSSIBLY GOING BELOW ZERO. DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MODERATING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
EARLIER GUSTS FROM THIS LATE DAY HAVE CALMED DOWN WITH THE
STRATIFYING OF THE AIR. STILL EXPECT 12-14KT G18-20KT IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LLJET ENTERS CWA A LITTLE BEFORE 06Z AND STRONGER, GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP AROUND THAT TIME, THINKING 14-16G30KT. IN
NORTHERN CWA, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PICK UP EVEN MORE AS RAIN ENTERS
FROM THE NW, WITH 18-22G35KT POSSIBLE. THE RAIN IS A RELATIVELY
QUICK SHOT IN A 2-3 HOUR TIME FRAME, BUT LOW CLOUDS, CONTINUED GUSTY
WINDS, AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN THE COURSE OF THE
DAY NORTH OF CVG/LUK. LOW END MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED, AND IN THE
NORTH TOWARDS DAY/CMH/LCK IFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL BEHIND FROPA AND
PRECIP.
WHILE WINDS MAY BEGIN TO CALM DOWN AROUND 00Z AT CVG/LUK, IT SHOULD
ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY OVER REMAINING TERMINALS. WHAT WILL IMPROVE IN THE
LATE DAY IS VSBYS, AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR CLOSER TO
00Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MCGINNIS
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS
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